For the entertainment of our readers, MPW has assembled an all-star panel to make predictions in the Presidential and U.S. Senate races as well as several ballots in Maryland. Let’s see who gets it right and who gets it wrong!
The following individuals have the courage (or perhaps the foolishness) to participate in our exercise:
Alan Banov, Vice-Chairman, MCDCC
Delegate Bill Bronrott (D-16)
Sharon Dooley, UpCounty Action
Delegate Brian Feldman (D-15)
Pete Fosselman, Mayor of Kensington
Delegate Bill Frick (D-16)
Marc Korman, Member, MCDCC
George Leventhal, Montgomery County Council Member
David Lublin, MPW Founder and American University Professor of Government
Eric Luedtke, MCEA Board Member and FSP Blogger
David Moon, Former Raskin and Navarro Campaign Manager
Adam Pagnucco, Rogue of MoCo
Jerry Pasternak, Garson and Claxton
Kim Propeack, Casa de Maryland
Senator Jamie Raskin (D-20)
Here’s our picks:
President by State
Arizona
The panel calls this state for McCain.
Colorado
The panel calls this state for Obama.
Florida
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman, Korman
Georgia
The panel calls this state for McCain.
Indiana
Obama: Fosselman, Korman, Luedtke, Raskin
McCain: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Missouri
Obama: Bronrott, Korman, Luedtke, Moon, Pasternak
McCain: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Pagnucco, Propeack, Raskin
Montana
Obama: Fosselman
McCain: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Nevada
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman
North Carolina
Obama: Banov, Dooley, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Bronrott, Feldman, Leventhal, Pagnucco
North Dakota
Obama: Banov, Dooley, Raskin
McCain: Bronrott, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Ohio
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman
Pennsylvania
The panel calls this state for Obama.
Virginia
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman
The panel’s consensus is that Obama will defeat McCain in the electoral count by a 353-185 margin.
Question for the Panel: The identity of the next President of the U.S. will be obvious as soon as the following info comes in on election night.
Banov: If Virginia goes for Obama, he wins. If he gets North Carolina, Missouri, or Montana, it’s a landslide. If Pennsylvania goes for McCain, we’re in trouble. If he takes Ohio, too, it is looking bad. If he takes Nevada, too, it’s kvetching time!
Bronrott: We will know as soon as the winners are called in the East-of-the-Mississippi states plus the Gateway-to-the-West state of Missouri.
Dooley: As soon as we know if the expected youth vote turnout has exceeded predictions.
Feldman: When the networks call Virginia for Obama after the polls close there at 7:00 PM.
Fosselman: Whoever wins Ohio.
Frick: I would say Ohio turnout figures. Mahoning Valley and Southeast Ohio in particular. If Obama can avoid a huge rout in East and Southeast Ohio, he wins Ohio and wins the presidency.
Korman: As Virginia goes, so goes the nation.
Leventhal: Who wins Virginia. The polls will close early (7 p.m.) and if Obama wins it, there really isn’t any clear way for McCain to get 270 votes.
Lublin: The results from Virginia are among the earliest to come in. Obama’s victory in Virginia will signal he has many roads to victory nationally and is doing well.
Luedtke: As soon as Pennsylvania votes strongly for Obama and McCain’s only hope for an electoral college victory proves to have been far out of reach.
Moon: If NC or IN goes for Obama or McConnell goes down in KY, I think this race is over in a landslide.
Pagnucco: It’s all about Virginia. If Obama’s margin is large there, that will signify heavy African-American and youth turnout around the country.
Pasternak: It’s 7:30 PM and the polls are closed in Ohio.
Raskin: As soon as we learn that Obama has won Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida, we will know it’s over. If he loses one of those, we will have to wait to learn that he has won Ohio to know he will be president.
U.S. Senate
Alaska
Begich: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Stevens: Raskin
Colorado
Schaffer: Fosselman
Udall: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Georgia
Chambliss: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick (after run-off), Korman, Leventhal, Luedtke (after run-off), Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Martin: Lublin, Raskin
Kentucky
Lunsford: Fosselman, Lublin
McConnell: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley (“Drat!”), Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Minnesota
Coleman: Bronrott, Banov, Feldman, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Franken: Dooley, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Raskin
Note from Frick: “I think this comes down to the wire. Al is good enough, smart enough, and gosh darnit, people like him. But most of those people live in New York.”
Mississippi
Musgrove: Fosselman
Wicker: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
New Hampshire
The panel calls this race for Shaheen.
New Mexico
The panel calls this race for Udall.
North Carolina
Dole: Fosselman
Hagan: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Note from Frick: “I think Obama has spent more time in North Carolina in the last 6 years than Liddy Dole has.”
Virginia
The panel calls this race for Warner.
The panel’s consensus is that the Democrats will pick up at least seven seats, eight assuming that Oregon turns over. This would give them a total of 59 Senators (or 58 if Joe Lieberman is expelled from the caucus).
Maryland
U.S. House 1
Harris: Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak
Kratovil: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Propeack, Raskin
U.S. House 6
Bartlett: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Dougherty: Fosselman
Toss-Up: Bronrott
Slots
Pass: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Fail: Raskin
Toss-Up: Bronrott
Note: Banov and Leventhal predict the referendum will fail in MoCo.
Ficker Amendment
The panel predicts the measure will fail.
MoCo School Board (At-Large)
The panel calls this race for Kauffman.
MoCo School Board (District 2)
Abrams: Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Pasternak, Propeack
Berthiaume: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Raskin
We’ll see whose picks are first and whose picks are worst tomorrow!
Update: Fivethirtyeight.com agrees with our Presidential forecast.