By Adam Pagnucco.
One of the most consequential executive primaries in Montgomery County history is over.
What now?
Smart politicians who win tough races are magnanimous in victory, acting graciously towards their opponents and trying to win over their voters. Winston Churchill, Barack Obama and George W. Bush all understood this, with Bush telling Americans in 2000, “Whether you voted for me or not, I will do my best to serve your interests and I will work to earn your respect.”
Elrich was given an opportunity to do this on Center Maryland’s August 25 podcast. Here is his exchange with host Damian O’Doherty at 1:35:
O’Doherty: Just tell me your feelings about this race, if you can give me something like…
Elrich: How about the dirtiest race in Montgomery County history?
O’Doherty: Talk to me about it.
Elrich: Like weeks of unmitigated lies, aided and abetted by an editorial from the Post that, you know, if anybody fact-checked it, would determine it was like totally not fact based.
O’Doherty: Right.
Elrich: It’s really a litany of things, I mean… and their collusion with the Blair campaign, where Blair was able to take the points from the Post instead of Blair attacked me like “I think he did X,” he was able to just say, “the Washington Post says, the Washington Post…” And that was deliberate. I mean, they know damn well what they’re doing. And Blair knew damn well what they were doing.
Did Elrich feel that he had done anything wrong in his first term to produce a close election? Not according to Fox 5, which reported that “he believes the issue stems from a communication problem, and not his performance as county executive.” Elrich also told the Post that he “blamed his close race with Blair on negative ads and on voters not being fully aware of some of the actions he’s taken over the past four years. ‘We need to do a better job of communicating, letting the public know what we’re doing, make sure they understand what we’re doing,’ he said.”
Elrich missed out on a huge opportunity to reach out to Blair and Riemer voters. It’s in his own self-interest to try to bring them into his base and the above comments did not do that.
Here is Elrich’s political problem: as measured by percentage of votes in a Democratic primary, he is the least popular county executive in MoCo history. The table below shows the vote percentages and percentage margins of almost every Democratic executive primary winner since 1978. The only race not shown for lack of exact numbers is Charles Gilchrist’s victory in 1982, which the Post described as being a 2-1 split. The two races before 1978 were won by Republican James Gleason.
Prior to this year, the average percentage of a Democratic incumbent county executive running for reelection in the primary was 71% and the average margin of victory was 48 points. (Those stats include Sidney Kramer’s 4-point loss in 1990.) That is a universe away from Elrich’s performance. Politicians watch elections like cats watch birds from the windowsill. Every politician in the county knows of Elrich’s electoral performances and they will behave accordingly.
Now to Hans Riemer. He did not want to leave office, first arguing unsuccessfully to his colleagues that they should establish a permanent elected council president position (which he could then run for) and later mounting an underdog race for executive. Riemer was term limited so it was up or out for him. He is young enough for a second act in office but he needs to find the right race. Alternatively, there is a vacancy coming up for the chair of the planning board. Would the next council consider Riemer if he applies? And would Elrich veto Riemer’s appointment? One of the county executive’s least-known and little-used powers is the ability to veto planning board appointments. What a juicy story that would be!
Then there is David Blair, my former client. I don’t know what he is going to do. He may not know what he is going to do. The bigger question right now is what the 39% of Democratic primary voters who voted for him are going to do. They wanted to do something that the county’s voters have never done before: elect someone to the office of executive who had never before served in government. Why would they favor such a thing?
To answer that question, let’s look at the big picture. For many decades, Montgomery County has epitomized success. It began as a primarily agricultural jurisdiction which was next to D.C. but had no desire to turn into a big, busy city like its neighbor. A century ago, the county’s visionary and political boss, Colonel E. Brooke Lee, foresaw the county’s growth. He laid the foundation for it by helping to create its planning institution, the Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission, and its water and sewer utility, the Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission. After World War II, these institutions helped the county take advantage of the explosive growth of the federal government, first by housing its employees and contractors and later by spawning its own local economy that fed off the feds. All of this resulted in Montgomery County becoming Maryland’s most populous jurisdiction. The county’s politics largely revolved around how to deal with the development, traffic and crowding that resulted from such success.
This may now be coming to an end.
The signs of strain are increasingly easy to see. The county’s pace of job growth and business creation has lagged D.C. and Virginia for more than a decade. Its budget growth has slowed. Its population growth and homebuilding have slowed. It has seen many years of net exodus in adjusted gross income, with people moving in making less money than people moving out. Some are even questioning the performance of the schools, which have long been regarded as the county’s crown jewel. Two years ago, when Washington Post columnist Robert McCartney noted that Prince George’s County was outperforming MoCo on job creation, county politicians reacted with shock. They should not have been shocked as I saw problems on the horizon as far back as 2007.
Blair’s voters include people who have become aware of these challenges. They were willing to take a chance on an outsider with a message of growth, opportunity and positive change. The county’s divided Democrats instead chose the status quo by 32 votes. But let’s remember that the Democratic primary is closed; members of other parties may not vote in it. If our primaries were open as are primary elections in Virginia, Blair would have won and his margin would have been a lot bigger than 32 votes.
Dealing with the mounting and serious problems of the county requires more than understanding them – it requires a sense of burning urgency to confront them. That means wanton slaughter of sacred cows, an overhaul of the county government’s ancient culture of paralysis by analysis and hard choices in the present to earn payoffs in the future. Strategy and courage are paramount. Tactical maneuvers to please interest groups will not stave off decline. And denial will only throw open the gates of oblivion.
Who will restore the promise of the county’s future?