By Adam Pagnucco.
This is the first in a series from cast vote data on the Montgomery County Democratic primary. Let’s start with County Executive Marc Elrich, who won a tight race for his second term. Elrich’s performance overall was strong in the southeast and east and he won pluralities in heavily Black and Latino precincts. He received most progressive institutional endorsements including the Apple Ballot. These characteristics affect his correlations with other candidates.
The chart below shows how Elrich voters voted in the county council at-large primary.
There are small bumps among Elrich voters for Will Jawando and Laurie-Anne Sayles. This is probably a product of their superior performances in East County and among Black voters as well as their shared progressive endorsements. There was also a falloff among Elrich voters for Scott Goldberg, who ran well in areas where David Blair was strong. One interesting fact: Evan Glass had a significant lead over Jawando among all voters but among Elrich voters, the two were almost tied.
Elrich voters were not all that different from all voters in Council Districts 1 (where Andrew Friedson had no opponent), 3 (where incumbent Sidney Katz won easily), 5 (where Kristin Mink won an open seat) and 6 (where Natali Fani-Gonzalez won an open seat). But there are a few districts in which Elrich voters varied from all voters.
The chart below shows Council District 2. Note how Elrich voters were much less likely to vote for the winner, Marilyn Balcombe, and much more likely to vote for Will Roberts. Balcombe still won among Elrich voters but her margin of victory was much smaller. Elrich and Roberts shared progressive endorsements while Balcombe and Blair were supported by the Washington Post.
The chart below shows Council District 4. The winner, Kate Stewart, shares a Takoma Park base with Elrich and the two shared many endorsements. Stewart won an absolute majority among Elrich voters. Amy Ginsburg and Blair were supported by the Washington Post, which attacked Elrich, so it’s no surprise that Ginsburg had a falloff among Elrich voters.
Finally, the chart below shows Council District 7. Dawn Luedtke had a different message than Elrich and is likely to become a rather different elected official, but she shared many of his progressive endorsements.
It will be interesting to explore the inverse data – that said, how voters for Jawando, Sayles, Balcombe, Stewart, Luedtke and others voted in the county executive race. We will get to that in future posts!