By Adam Pagnucco.
Let’s start linking demographics and voting in the CD6 primaries. We will begin with race.
In my work on Democratic turnout in MoCo’s 2022 primary, I noted the relationship of race and turnout. Using Census block group data, I was able to peg turnout at 50% in heavily White precincts, 31% in heavily Asian precincts, 30% in heavily Black precincts and 23% in heavily Latino precincts.
I did not use Census block group data in CD6 because it would probably take a month to match up block groups and precincts. (I have done it before, so I am not underestimating the work requirement for this!) Instead, I used zip code data as a shortcut. That yields less robust results but if there’s a pattern, it should be visible. And yes, it’s there.
First, let’s look at the White percentage of each county from U.S. Census data. We use zip codes from the five-year 2017-21 American Community Survey for this analysis. The data for Montgomery County applies only to zip codes inside CD6.
Now let’s run the same data for the district’s largest sub-markets.
Allegany, Garrett and Washington counties are overwhelmingly White. They are also bigger factors in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary. Montgomery County has substantial diversity while Frederick County has some. Here are sub-markets where specific groups of color accounted for at least 15% of the population. Remember, we are using zip codes here, not data on municipalities or census designated places, so our coverage areas are larger than the latter.
Clarksburg: 37% Asian, 15% Black
Montgomery Village: 33% Latino, 23% Black
Germantown: 24% Black, 24% Latino, 19% Asian
Gaithersburg: 23% Latino, 20% Asian
Hagerstown: 15% Black
Additionally, zip codes with a local Frederick designation were collectively 14% Black and 14% Latino.
So racial diversity matters a lot in MoCo, somewhat in Frederick and not much in the western part of the district. We shall see how that plays out in voting next.