By Adam Pagnucco.
In Part One, we found that 72% of all contributions received by Congressional District 6 candidates were made by individuals (aside from the candidates themselves). In Part Two, we found that itemized individual contributions from Maryland residents accounted for just 19% of all CD6 fundraising. In Part Three, we found that itemized individual contributions from CD6 residents accounted for just 4% of all CD6 fundraising. Now let’s look at cash on hand and burn rate.
The chart below shows cash on hand as of 9/30/23.
The top two on this measure, Democratic Delegate Joe Vogel and self-funding Democrat Geoffrey Grammer, also lead the field in receipts. The race is young, however, and other candidates could easily catch up in the current quarter.
The next chart shows burn rate, which is the percentage of receipts accounted for by expenditures. At this point in the cycle, candidates should aim to have low burn rates. They want to raise money and minimize spending so that they can maximize mail, digital, TV and field in the last couple months of the race. The ultimate cautionary tale on burn rate is the disastrous campaign of 2022 council at-large candidate Brandy Brooks, which I wrote about last year.
Republican Neil Parrott’s committee reported cash on hand of -$4,4442 and debts of $4,109 at the end of the period, accounting for his astronomical burn rate. He raised over $1 million in the prior cycle, so if he actually enters the race, he ought to be financially viable – at least in the GOP primary.
Two others stand out in a positive way. Democrat Tekesha Martinez, the Mayor of Hagerstown, was the fourth-highest fundraiser and had the second-lowest burn rate. Republican Tom Royals was the third-highest fundraiser and had a below average burn rate. Republican Mariela Roca, who lost in the 2022 primary, has raised the most money from CD6 residents so far but reported a scorching 85% burn rate. If she keeps it up, she won’t be able to pay for mail next spring.
Two things are obvious from this series.
First, a majority of the money in this race is coming from outside CD6 and a lot of it is coming from outside Maryland. That phenomenon will probably intensify in the general election as CD6 will be one of a handful of competitive open seats in the entire nation.
And second, no one has so far raised a ton of money. That has to be very encouraging to April McClain Delaney, the wife of former CD6 Congressman John Delaney, who has just entered the race. In his three victorious races in the district, John Delaney self-funded $2.4 million in 2012, $938k in 2014 and $354k in 2016. That suggests April Delaney will have more financial capacity than the rest of the Democratic field, but let’s bear in mind that some of the other Dems have been working the district for months.
We will update this information after the next round of reports are filed in January.