By Adam Pagnucco.
In Part Four, we looked at four jurisdictions – the District of Columbia, Arlington, Alexandria and Prince George’s – from whom Montgomery County has gained real adjusted gross income (AGI) in 2021 dollars over the last decade. Today, we will look at jurisdictions to whom we have lost AGI.
State of Florida
MoCo Net Loss in AGI, 2011-21: $1.606 Billion
As Tim Russert once said, “Florida, Florida, Florida.” This is the number one destination of fleeing MoCo income. The net number of returns headed to Florida each year is less than the number headed to Virginia or Frederick, but it’s the income of the folks leaving that drives this statistic. Over the last decade, the $2021 mean household income of people moving from Florida to MoCo was $90,158. The mean household income of people moving from MoCo to Florida was $174,031. No doubt Florida’s lack of an income tax is part of the attraction for folks headed south.
Frederick County, MD
MoCo Net Loss in AGI, 2011-21: $1.092 Billion
Frederick leads in the net outflow of returns from MoCo with 12,267 over the last decade. The $2021 mean household income of people moving from Frederick to MoCo was $70,353 over the last decade. The mean household income of people moving from MoCo to Frederick was $81,042. Maybe former Frederick County Executive candidate Mike Hough, himself a MoCo native, was right in saying that Frederick was on its way to becoming another MoCo.
State of Virginia
MoCo Net Loss in AGI, 2011-21: $986 Million
MoCo has been losing taxpayer income to Virginia for decades, although many Virginia jurisdictions are still experiencing net losses overall. This flow may be declining as taxpayer outflow to Florida and Frederick is rising.
Fairfax County, VA
MoCo Net Loss in AGI, 2011-21: $620 Million
For the first time in this data series, MoCo had a net inflow of taxpayer income from Fairfax in 2020, with $1.73 million coming in. We shall see if this is a blip or a new trend of fewer losses. Overall, Fairfax has had bigger losses in the last decade than MoCo.
Howard County, MD
MoCo Net Loss in AGI, 2011-21: $496 Million
MoCo’s huge outflow spike to Howard in 2016 may have been driven by a small number of extremely wealthy people as the net number of returns and exemptions leaving was not exceptional. Howard does not attract as much of our income as Frederick but it is a slow and steady siphon for MoCo.
State of North Carolina
MoCo Net Loss in AGI, 2011-21: $288 Million
Outflow to North Carolina varies a lot but MoCo always loses money to this state, which has lower income taxes and more employment growth than Maryland.
Montgomery County is not the only jurisdiction in the region which is losing taxpayer income. We will look at some of our neighbors in the next post.