By Adam Pagnucco.
The news that the U.S. General Services Administration chose Greenbelt as the site for the new FBI headquarters provoked celebrations in Prince George’s County and Annapolis – and justifiably so. But we in Montgomery County should be celebrating too because we are also a winner.
There is no question that Prince George’s County will benefit from the FBI project. The federal government’s draft environmental impact statement (DEIS) lays out an enormous project with huge upside including:
- 2.6 million gross square feet of construction
- 6,720 full-time equivalent construction workers
- $315 million in direct construction wages
- Indirect, long-term increases in sales taxes (paid to the state) and income taxes (paid to the state and county) from FBI employees spending money and relocating to live near the site
Additionally, NPR estimates that the FBI project will have 7,500 jobs and the Washington Post reported that it will be part of “a proposed mixed-use development site that would include apartments, a hotel and retail and could bring billions of dollars of new tax revenue to the county.”
A site plan sketch for the new FBI headquarters.
However, there will be costs. According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey for 2017-2021, Greenbelt had 24,602 residents, of whom 13,531 were employed, and 10,881 housing units. In that context, a 7,500-job project will impose enormous infrastructure impacts on Greenbelt. The DEIS estimates major traffic impacts from the project and recommends new turn lanes resulting in property takings on Edmonston Road, Powder Mill Road and Sunnyside Avenue. The DEIS also states:
There are forecasted to be two failing interstate facilities that directly serve access between the Capital Beltway and the Greenbelt site. The Maryland SHA is working to determine the best course of action to address these issues. It is assumed, at a minimum, there would be required changes to the interstate ramps along the Capital Beltway between the U.S. Route 1 and Baltimore Washington Memorial Parkway Interchanges.
All of this adds up to many millions of dollars in state and county money as well as construction and traffic headaches for residents. This is still a large net plus for Greenbelt and Prince George’s County but it does have significant transition costs.
Now what of MoCo? The DEIS makes no estimate of population migration associated with the project, but it’s reasonable to assume that there will be some of it. Who wants to live in Fairfax, Prince William or Loudoun and commute to Greenbelt regularly? Some of those folks will move to be closer to their workplace. Future workers will be more likely to live near Greenbelt than when the FBI was in D.C. That will create a demand for housing, which in turn will lead to higher income and property tax receipts. That will spin off into more business activity, which will generate even more tax revenue.
Some FBI employees, and employees of related businesses, will move to Greenbelt but the city simply can’t hold them all. That means some will live a bit farther away. Montgomery County is right next door. Think about this: Downtown Silver Spring, Takoma Park, Wheaton and White Oak are all roughly a 20-minute drive to Greenbelt. Quite a few people will trade that drive to access MoCo’s schools, restaurants and amenities – especially if they don’t have to commute every day. That’s a potential bonanza for our economy without having to bear as much of the traffic, construction and infrastructure costs that Greenbelt and Prince George’s County will have to endure.
It’s pretty much all gravy for us. The same could be said for Anne Arundel and Howard counties, parts of which are almost as close to Greenbelt as is Silver Spring. Sure, non-Prince George’s residents will have to pay some of the infrastructure costs through state taxes, but it won’t be as direct as the costs borne by Prince George’s folks.
Gravy, gravy and more gravy. (And just in time for Thanksgiving!)
So yes, the FBI announcement is good news for Greenbelt and Prince George’s County – and good for them. But it’s also a big win for MoCo. All the Rockville bureaucrats should head over to the county liquor store and pop some champagne corks – assuming that there is any in stock!