By Adam Pagnucco.
Last week, Emerson College, The Hill and DC News Now released a new poll on Maryland’s U.S. Senate election. The poll tested the two leading Democrats – Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Congressman David Trone – as well as the newest entrant, former Republican Governor Larry Hogan. The poll’s sample size was 1,000 registered voters, giving it a +/-3 point margin of error for the full sample. In addition to the topline numbers, the poll’s crosstabs were also released. It’s a juicy batch of data begging for analysis.
Before we dive into it, it’s important to note one element of context. Of the three leading candidates, Hogan is by far the best known. He served two terms as governor, was the first Republican to be reelected to that seat since Theodore McKeldin (who served in the 1950s) and regularly enjoyed high approval ratings in office. Next is Trone, who has been spending many millions of his own dollars on mail and TV for months. By contrast, Alsobrooks is mostly known inside her own county and just started running her first TV ad, which has probably not been seen yet by most Marylanders. As a result, any poll taken at this moment is likely to understate her numbers relative to what they will be on election day.
That said, this poll has a large sample and was not commissioned by any candidate. That makes it worth examining. Here are a few things that stand out.
Hogan looks competitive in the general election – at least for now.
The topline result shown below has garnered the most attention. In a general election matchup, Hogan leads Alsobrooks by 7 points and is tied with Trone. Trone loves this and has been pounding it in emails. But remember – Alsobrooks just started mass communications and so her numbers are likely to improve.
In the Democratic primary, the poll estimates 31% support for Trone, 17% for Alsobrooks and 37% undecided. Trone will take the advantage but he is not close to wrapping up the nomination.
Against both Democrats, Hogan dominates among Republicans – of course. But that’s not his only strength. He earns 31% of Democrats against Alsobrooks and 24% of them against Trone. He also gets 43% of independents against Alsobrooks and 48% against Trone. Alsobrooks and Trone can conceivably win a general election by consolidating their support among Democrats, who account for a majority of voters in the poll, and getting a handful of independents. But Hogan has to get votes from Democrats, Republicans and independents to win. In this era of partisan polarization, that’s hard to do.
There is a huge racial divide in the poll.
Of the 1,000 registered voters in the sample, 603 are White and 287 are Black. For those subsamples, the margins of error should be around 4 points (for White respondents) and 6 points (for Black respondents). Add in a few points for White and Black Democrats. Sample sizes are too small for crosstabs to be meaningful for Latinos (43 respondents) and Asians (42 respondents).
Here is how those two groups broke down in the Democratic primary.
Whites: 42% Trone, 10% Alsobrooks
Blacks: 17% Trone, 30% Alsobrooks
Here is how they break down in a general election between Alsobrooks and Hogan.
Whites: 26% Alsobrooks, 54% Hogan
Blacks: 59% Alsobrooks, 24% Hogan
And here is how they break down in a general election between Trone and Hogan.
Whites: 36% Trone, 49% Hogan
Blacks: 55% Trone, 26% Hogan
Trone does a better job of holding Black voters vs Hogan than Alsobrooks does at holding White voters vs Hogan. In other words, Black loyalty to the Democratic nominee works for both Democrats whereas White voters are more likely to shift.
Trone performs better among seniors than Alsobrooks.
While lots of voters tell pollsters that they intend to vote, seniors are the ones who actually do vote. Here is how respondents age 60 and older broke down in Democratic primary and general election matchups.
42% Trone vs 22% Alsobrooks
36% Alsobrooks vs 49% Hogan
47% Trone vs 43% Hogan
Is Trone stronger among women than Alsobrooks?
This one is hard to believe. But for what it’s worth, here is how women broke down among the three candidates.
33% Trone vs 15% Alsobrooks
35% Alsobrooks vs 45% Hogan
41% Trone vs 42% Hogan
Again, I expect that when Alsobrooks revs up her comms program, her numbers will get better. But if she can’t hold on to women, she is done.
Hogan has advantages on the economy and crime, the top two issues for voters.
The economy and crime were in a statistical tie as the top two issues for voters. Here is how economy voters broke down.
20% Alsobrooks, 32% Trone
30% Alsobrooks, 49% Hogan
30% Trone, 47% Hogan
And here is how crime voters broke down.
15% Alsobrooks, 32% Trone
33% Alsobrooks, 53% Hogan
41% Trone, 50% Hogan
If Alsobrooks is the Democratic nominee, expect Hogan to talk about crime A LOT. And since Alsobrooks has custody of Prince George’s County, Hogan would have a lot to work with.
There is a lot more in the crosstabs, but they are limited by sample size and I’m already pushing the envelope on the crime and economy voter samples noted above.
I have one more reservation about this poll. We are more than eight months away from the general election. Since this is a presidential year and both chambers of Congress are tight, it will be an intensely partisan election. The Democrats will be sure to hammer Hogan about Mitch McConnell, abortion and any other partisan-divide issue that polls well. The current poll does not reflect any of that since the Democrats are still focused on their primary. But the eventual nominee, whether it’s Alsobrooks or Trone, will benefit from partisan attacks in a majority-Democratic state like Maryland. This was less of an issue in Hogan’s gubernatorial races, which had no impact on control of the federal government.
When partisan attacks reach a fever pitch, Hogan’s three-way balancing act will become harder to sustain. I suspect his numbers may become more challenging by November.