By Adam Pagnucco.
A poll commissioned by Delegate Joe Vogel, who is running in the Congressional District 6 Democratic primary, shows a wide open race. It also shows him within the margin of error against presumed frontrunner April McClain Delaney, the spouse of former Congressman John Delaney.
First, let’s look at the top line memo. After that, I will have a few comments.
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To: Interested Parties
From: GBAO
Date: March 25, 2024
MD-6 Democratic Primary Poll Results
A new poll of likely Democratic primary voters in Maryland’s sixth Congressional district finds that the race to replace Representative David Trone is wide open with just under two months until the primary election. Joe Vogel’s experience as a community leader turned Delegate, endorsements from local groups and elected officials, and commitment to the issues that matter most like protecting abortion rights put him in a competitive position in this multicandidate primary. However, Vogel, like all candidates in this primary, is unknown to much of the electorate and needs to introduce voters to his story, and progressive ideals.
The following are key findings from a survey of 500 Democratic primary voters in the May 2024 Democratic primary election in Maryland. The survey carries a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points. It was conducted between March 14-17, 2024 via landlines, cellphones, and text-to-web.
- This is a wide-open primary race that any of the candidates can ultimately win. The Democratic primary candidates are not well known with none of them entering the race with name ID over 40 percent. Vogel must effectively introduce himself to most voters and communicate his message.
- Nearly half the electorate is undecided and support for all candidates is weak. Vogel begins the race in second place to April McClain Delaney, 10 percent to 17 percent. However, 48 percent of voters remain undecided. Additionally, when the lean voters are removed Vogel and McClain Delaney are tied at nine percent. Support for all candidate is soft with no candidate coming in over five percent when voters are asked how certain they are that they will actually vote for the candidate they chose.
- Vogel’s personal story and experience is compelling to voters. When voters hear Vogel’s personal story coupled with his experience as a community leader and legislator they move toward Vogel. His share of the vote grows 13 points from 10 percent to 23 percent.
Bottom line: Joe Vogel’s life and work experience coupled with his clear support for Democratic priorities create a convincing case for voters in Maryland’s sixth district. However, Vogel will need the means to communicate his vision with voters in order to win.
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A few comments.
1. The poll sampled 500 Democratic primary voters, producing a 4.4 point margin of error. That’s typical for polls of races like this. The challenge here is that many crosstabs will have such small sample sizes that they will produce margins of error exceeding 10 points, making them unreliable. Candidates with large budgets like David Trone can pay for big samples and robust crosstabs, but all other candidates have to live within the limitations of sample size.
2. The poll was taken on March 14-17, almost a month ago. That was right after the Sierra Club endorsed Vogel but before the teachers union endorsed him. It also came before his first TV ad. So the poll probably understates Vogel’s numbers a little bit. Also of interest is that the Vogel campaign waited for weeks before releasing it.
3. Delaney’s numbers look low considering that she shares both a surname and a marriage with the Congressman who represented the district for six years. Soon, we will see how much she has been spending on TV and mail when her campaign finance report comes out next week. (Delaney first went on TV more than a week before the poll was taken.) If she has spent six or seven digits on mass comms and is still at a fifth or less, that doesn’t look like a world beating performance.
4. The race isn’t truly down to two candidates. Page 3 of the polling memo below shows Delaney at 17%, Vogel at 10%, Delegate Lesley Lopez and Hagerstown Mayor Tekesha Martinez at 8% each and Geoffrey Grammer, who subsequently dropped out and endorsed Delaney, at 5%. Everyone else combined for 4%. The only big number was for undecided, which came in at 48%.
5. Also on page 3, look at the prevalence of economic issues among Democratic voters. Immigration ranks second among Democrats only behind a nebulous “other economic issue.” Inflation and healthcare also rank highly. This is a different electorate than MoCo gubernatorial primary Democrats, who are usually concerned with education, transportation, affordability and increasingly crime.
With so many candidates so closely bunched together and the undecided vote so huge, this race will now come down to mass communications – TV, mail, field and digital. All of those things cost money. Candidates without significant cash balances have no shot to break out of the pack. This is why candidates spend so much time on the phone (at least the non-wealthy ones) in the early months of a race. When the moment comes to launch the comms and move the numbers, you either have game or you don’t.
The final campaign finance reports before the primary, which cover this year’s first quarter, are due on April 15.
The poll’s top line memo and page 3 are printed below.
