By Adam Pagnucco.
A new poll commissioned by Equality PAC finds Delegate Joe Vogel and former U.S. Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney are tied for the lead in the Congressional District 6 Democratic primary.
While Equality PAC has endorsed Vogel and was involved with an attack mailer against Delaney, the polling firm – Public Policy Polling – is a nationally known firm. This poll “surveyed 558 likely Democratic primary voters in Maryland’s 6th Congressional District from April 25-26, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 4.2%. 80% of interviews for the survey were conducted by text message and 20% by telephone.”
That means the poll was taken before Delaney was endorsed by the Washington Post and before her new tranche of $500,000 in self-funding (loaned on April 24) was fully deployed in the field. It was also taken before early voting, in which representatives of the teachers union are handing out Apple Ballots with Vogel’s name on them.
The poll finds Vogel and Delaney tied at 24% with other candidates in single digits and 36% undecided. The polling memo is reprinted below.
*****
From: Minami Yoshizawa, Public Policy Polling
To: Interested Parties
Subject: Vogel Leads McClain Delaney Among Informed Voters in Competitive MD-06 Race; Voters Seriously Concerned About McClain Delaney Hosting Republican Guests
Date: April 30, 2024
A new Public Policy Polling survey of likely Democratic primary voters in Maryland’s 6th Congressional District finds that Joe Vogel and April McClain Delaney are currently leading the primary race, with the other candidates polling in the single digits. In the initial horserace question, Vogel and McClain Delaney both start off with 24% of the vote, with 36% of the electorate still unsure who to vote for.
Of the voters who chose a candidate, 40% say there is a chance they might change their mind before the election on May 14th, showing there is a lot of fluidity and potential for movement in the race. 42% of McClain Delaney’s voters say there’s a change they might change their mind, while 37% of Vogel’s voters say the same.
Then the following background information about Vogel and McClain Delaney are provided to respondents, after which Vogel gains 5 percentage points and leads McClain Delaney 29-26:
- “Joe Vogel is a Latino immigrant, a member of the LGBTQ community, and a community leader turned Maryland State Delegate. Since coming to this country as a toddler, he has learned that anything is possible given the right opportunity. Joe is running for Congress to protect abortion rights and expand opportunities to businesses, working families, and communities across Maryland. That’s why Maryland’s teachers and other leading labor unions, environmental groups and local leaders have endorsed Joe for Congress.” 38% of voters find this to be a “very convincing” reason to vote for Vogel.
- “April McClain Delaney is a mom to four daughters who has worked in business and tech for the last 30 years. She led a non-profit aimed at keeping kids safe online and even served the Biden Administration at the Department of Commerce. She understands what is most important: protecting abortion rights, growing our economy, and addressing our challenges with a common sense, common ground approach.” Only 32% of voters find this to be a “very convincing” reason to vote for McClain Delaney.
Voters are also presented with some negative messaging about the two candidates, and the messaging against McClain Delaney gives them the most concern:
- “April McClain Delaney claims she supports abortion rights but she calls John Roberts, the Chief Justice who led the Supreme Court that overturned Roe v. Wade and wrote the opinion allowing corporations to give unlimited money to political campaigns, a ‘good friend of ours.’” 62% of respondents say this gives them concerns, with 35% saying it gives them “very serious concerns.” Only 26% say they have “no real concerns” about this.
- “April McClain Delaney is running as a Democrat, but the circles she runs in tell a different story. She is a multi-millionaire who lives ten miles outside the district, and who hosts lavish Christmas parties with guests like extreme anti-abortion Republicans like Tucker Carlson and Paul Ryan.” 78% of respondents say this gives them concerns, including 55% who say it gives them “very serious concerns.” Only 16% say they have “no real concerns” about this.
Meanwhile, Joe Vogel being under 30 years old gives only 29% of respondents concerns, with only 9% saying it gives them “very serious concerns”. A vast majority (63%) have “no real concerns” about Vogel’s age.
On the final informed horserace question, Vogel ends up with a 14-point lead (32-18) over McClain Delaney, having gained 8 points over the course of the poll. 34% of voters remain undecided. Vogel has a clear path to victory if he has enough resources to carry the campaign forward and the right messaging, and the negative messaging against McClain Delaney seems to be particularly effective.
Public Policy Polling surveyed 558 likely Democratic primary voters in Maryland’s 6th Congressional District from April 25-26, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 4.2%. 80% of interviews for the survey were conducted by text message and 20% by telephone.
