By Adam Pagnucco.
Congressman David Trone has been running a TV ad claiming that “the polls say I’m the only candidate who can beat Larry Hogan.” Let’s review his ad along with the script below.
Trone: This is the margin between our Democratic Senate and a Republican one. [Holds up index finger] So if Larry Hogan wins, we lose more than the majority. We lose a woman’s right to choose, could lose Social Security and with Trump knocking on the door, lose democracy itself. The polls say I’m the only candidate who can beat Larry Hogan. So do Maryland officials from Attorney General Brown to State’s Attorney Aisha Braveboy. And I intend to use every ounce of my energy and every resource to do just that. The stakes are just too damn high. I’m David Trone and I approve this message.
Is Trone right?
So far, I have seen five public polls that tested Trone and his primary rival, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, in a general election against Hogan. Here is what they say.
1004 registered voters, +/-3.3% margin of error
Hogan 49, Trone 37 – Hogan +12
Hogan 50, Alsobrooks 36 – Hogan +14
Goucher College/Baltimore Banner, March 19-24
800 registered voters, +/-3.5% margin of error
Hogan 43, Trone 42 – Hogan +1
Hogan 44, Alsobrooks 40 – Hogan +4
OpinionWorks/Baltimore Sun/Fox 45, April 7-10
1292 likely voters, +/-3% margin of error
Hogan 53, Trone 40 – Hogan +13
Hogan 54, Alsobrooks 36 – Hogan +18
Public Policy Polling, May 6-7
719 voters, +/-3.7% margin of error
Trone 47, Hogan 37 – Trone +10
Alsobrooks 46, Hogan 37 – Alsobrooks +9
Emerson College Polling/The Hill/DC News Now, May 6-8
1115 registered voters, +/-2.9% margin of error
Trone 49, Hogan 38 – Trone +11
Alsobrooks 48, Hogan 38 – Alsobrooks +10
In the first three polls, taken in March and April, Hogan beat both Democrats although in Goucher College’s poll, his leads were within the margin of error. In the last two polls, both taken this month, both Democrats led Hogan by margins exceeding the margin of error. It’s possible that Democratic voters, who account for roughly 60% of Maryland’s general electorate, now realize the partisan consequences of voting for a Republican for Senate.
In any event, there is no evidence in any of these polls that Hogan’s performance against the two Democrats is all that different. If Trone had an internal poll showing that he beats Hogan but Alsobrooks cannot, he could release it. After all, he published his internal polls in December and January. His failure to release internal polls in several months speaks volumes.
So Trone’s assertion that he is the only Democrat who can beat Hogan is unsupported, at least for now. What Trone could say is that if he is the Democratic nominee, his self-funding could compete head-to-head with Hogan while if Alsobrooks is the nominee, the Democrats would have to divert tens of millions of dollars from other races to help her. That would hurt the Democrats’ chances to retain the U.S. Senate overall.
Trone is indisputably right about one thing: the stakes in Maryland’s U.S. Senate election are as high as they can get. Democratic primary voters will have that in mind as they cast their ballots now.