By Adam Pagnucco.
This site is called Montgomery Perspective for a reason. It’s not necessarily my perspective, at least not all the time, but it is a perspective from Montgomery County, the most populous jurisdiction in Maryland. And for this three-part series, I am opening this site up to my source network and asking them three questions:
Who will win the U.S. Senate Democratic primary?
Who will win the Congressional District 6 primaries (both Democratic and Republican)?
And who will emerge from the school board primaries?
My source network is a sample of Montgomery County’s political class: the elected officials, government staffers, interest group leaders and activists who collectively run this place. I asked dozens of them for their opinions and many of them responded. In each post, I begin with their comments – none attributed! – and wrap up with my comment and a final tally. We will soon find out whether we’re right or wrong, but this is the chatter from the folks who know what’s going on.
Let’s start with school board. One note. Some sources appeared to be picking the final winners of the general election. In fact, two candidates will emerge from the primary in each race (At-Large, District 2 and District 4).
Comments from sources
Assume Apple ballot for school board (which should be disbanded and replaced by the council sitting as the school board).
Despite recent scandals, incumbents will make the cut to the general election.
The Apple Ballot candidates will do very well against the incumbents in light of the justified criticisms of their governance recently. The Apple will win the at large seat, and maybe D4, but the incumbents will keep one seat.
All incumbents prevail.
Most likely the incumbents, but really hope [Rita] Montoya makes it through.
Going to go full on “throw the bums out” here. People are mad. MCEA declares victory. It’s just too good to not happen.
All the incumbents since no one has money to run an effective campaign, so people end up voting for names they recognize. Sadly.
The stage was set to be a “throw the bums out” election but unfortunately, the voters didn’t know who the bums were. From atrocious test scores to Beidleman to screwing up the superintendent hiring AND firing, the incumbents gave voters plenty of reasons to fire them. D2 – Smondrowski and Zimmerman, D4 – Stewart and Mandel, At Large – Montoya and Harris. Evans had no history of winning without the Apple Ballot and aside from the occasional lawn sign, she seemed to have forgotten to tell voters to vote for her. In 3 years, she collected 8(?) campaign contributions. If you don’t want the job, it’s OK to not run for re-election. Bethany Mandel figured out the secret sauce of electoral politics: tap into voter’s optimism or anger. Mandel chose anger. Voters aren’t happy with MCPS and she put herself out there as the “I’m mad as hell and not going to take it any more” option and with finite resources, used calls and texts to distribute that message widely.
I predict an Apple Ballot hat trick. If the Joel Beidleman fiasco isn’t enough to get the current board members booted it will only be because none of the challengers has enough money to overcome the (very limited) name ID of the incumbents. But the apple should be more than enough to push Stewart/Montoya/Zimmerman past the incumbents and the right wing nuts.
For the school board I think we will see: Harris and Montoya, Smondrowski and Zimmerman, Shebra and Stewart. I think of the school board races, Mandel has a chance with uninformed people and because she has name recognition- but I think high Dem turnout with a competitive race for senate and a competitive CD6 race. Those are somewhat informed Democratic voters, and I think they will not entertain Mandel (well at least I hope not!)
There is considerable angst over the lack of transparency and continued decline in performance of MCPS over the past few years, so look for some turnover here. There is even a slate effort out there pushing conservative candidates on a blue ballot meant to compete with the Teachers Union’s red Apple Ballot to take advantage of that discontent but I don’t see that succeeding. Best guess, I think you will see a mix of incumbents and new faces this time including at least two of the Apple Ballot endorsees.
I think negativity towards the school system breaks through even in a low info, low spending race.
Never underestimate the power of the MCCPTA network.
The incumbents (endorsed by SEIU) vs. the Apple Ballot will be an interesting match-up. Most everyday people do not know they can vote for all BOE positions. No candidate has campaigned enough. Most people don’t even know the names of the incumbents, so it’s anyone’s guess. Even PTA leaders at many schools have no idea who the candidates are and what they stand for. I think it will be impossible for any of the non-incumbent, non-Apple ballot candidates to come close to winning, including the people who are active on Twitter. Bethany Mandel has been extremely active on Twitter – on Israel/Gaza – but unlike everyone else who is campaigning, she hasn’t taken the time to understand the issues. Her comments can be characterized as, “Don’t like what you see? I’ll do the opposite” but meanwhile her depth of understanding on the issues is very shallow – perhaps shallower than anyone else running. For the record, I am personally hoping that no incumbents win. They have proven that they don’t know how to hold MCPS accountable and they don’t deserve another term. It would be great if we could increase the salary for BOE positions by the next election – it would be a very different election.
At large – I think that Lynne Harris will win and the only person who could come in first is Rita Montoya. District 2 – If the Apple Ballot prevails, Zimmerman could win but I have not seen either candidate around and Smondrowski could pull it out. I do not have a feel for this one at all. District 4 – Laura should easily win this one. She has been around forever and has worked on much to make our County a better place. Shebra Evans has lost her confidence but should come in second. If Mandel wins, the whole county will have to work to defeat her in the fall.
Pagnucco: History favors the Apple Ballot and the incumbents, especially now that the Washington Post has stopped endorsing in school board primaries. The other candidates need money to break through. Bethany Mandel, who has sent both a robocall and a text, has the best shot of the others to make it out of the primary.
Final Verdict: 28 sources predicted that all incumbents would emerge from the primary. 26 sources predicted that all Apple Ballot candidates would emerge from the primary. (There is a lot of overlap between those two groups.) 3 said Bethany Mandel would survive. 2 said Brenda Diaz would survive.
Next: Congressional District 6.