By Adam Pagnucco.
Now let’s hear from dozens of people in my source network about the Congressional District 6 primaries. First, we will have comments from MoCo’s political class – the elected officials, key staffers, interest group leaders and activists who run the county. Next, I’ll make a short comment. And finally, we will tally up the sources’ predictions.
Democratic primary: Sources who predicted April McClain Delaney
Money talks, although underfunded, hard-working upstarts like Lesley Lopez would be more refreshing.
Delaney, in a closer than expected race with an assist from the Post endorsement and voters turned off by Vogel’s negative ads.
45 (Delaney) 30 (Vogel) 25 (all others).
Vogel a close second.
Money, geography, and name recognition are good recipes for winning primary elections. Delaney isn’t part of the crowded ambitious MoCo political scene which benefits her as she has roots further out in the district. She has a well-funded war chest and having her last name can’t hurt either.
The tipping point will be if the mass of voters in the progressive MoCo/Frederick (~50%) will vote for Vogel vs the north/west parts of CD-6. Although Vogel is working it, I don’t think that Vogel’s youth and inexperience will match with the demographics of the rest of the district.
She’s not great but not high-powered competition.
Joe Vogel has run a better race than almost anyone expected, but I think April Delaney, her money, and her last name will prevail.
It’s not D8. Vogel may be a bridge too far.
I am hoping more than predicting a Delaney win here, though I think she will pull it out in a squeaker. Unfortunately, due to Vogel’s success with out-of-state donors and strong backing from various progressive special interests, this will be close and he has a real shot at winning this too, especially if turnout is low. This would be unfortunate because the 6th District is not Chevy Chase and Joe Vogel has almost no chance of holding this seat for the Democrats in the Fall. He is far too liberal for this moderate-swing-slightly-GOP-leaning district and would only have a shot if Republicans nominated someone as extreme as Dan Cox, but I don’t see that happening. Trone has won this swing seat handily because he fits the district and connects with rural small-town voters, not just because he’s run great and well financed campaigns. Delaney can do so too, as her husband did, but Vogel does not have that ability. The progressive fringe that makes up Vogel’s support base remains naive-bordering-on-idiotic in their unfounded belief that “if we only move far left enough, swing voters will flock to our banner…”. This race will once again prove the fallacy of that canard should Vogel win the primary. Delaney can hold the seat in the fall, as could Del. Lopez if she had raised more funding to compete in the primary, but a Vogel win means another GOP House pick-up. That ought to be enough to convince Democrats to vote for Delaney but we’ll see if it is.
Delaney for CD6, but Vogel has put up a great fight.
Predict Delaney but Vogel is certainly making it a race.
Name recognition is hard to beat. Also, she is the most seasoned candidate by far. Her responses to candidate surveys outshine every person still running, except maybe Tekesha Martinez who also has a great handle on the issues. Gen Z people may want to see more young people in office, but the rest of us want experienced adults to hit the ground running. Joe Vogel has done a great job organizing and campaigning, but I predict he’s going to get FAR fewer votes than he expects. He is smart but inexperienced for this level position in a state where there are countless smart, highly experienced contenders. I haven’t followed the Republicans b/c I don’t think they will win in November. The Dems will go crazy to save this seat and it will be all-hands-on-deck starting May 15. If Delaney wins, I think she’ll win the general.
I believe that April Delaney will prevail and I believe that she is the only candidate who can keep the district blue.
Democratic primary: Sources who predicted Joe Vogel
From start to finish, he walked like a Democrat, and talked like a Democrat, which is probably what you want to do if all the voters are Democrats. Elected officials were big mad that he decided to run for Congress, then they were big madder when he got traction, and finally they were butt hurt when he ended up doing so well. Barack Obama was a US Senator for 2 years when he announced for President, Wes Moore had never been on a ballot when he became Governor. Vogel understood the assignment while a plethora of officeholders need to figure out that winning elections aren’t always about what committee you’re on or what bill you co-sponsored that didn’t really affect anyone’s lives.
Vogel 33, Delaney 31.
Republican primary: Sources who predicted Dan Cox
Name recognition from the Governor’s race and throughout Frederick County could get him the nod.
In the D6 race, Rs expecting a more mainstream candidate like Parrott to win the primary will be disappointed when a more extreme candidate wins, maybe Cox.
Dan Cox, I guess. I would not rule out the possibility that a Republican could win this seat.
The Republican side of CD6 is underreported and an under-polled race so not firm here. It is hard to understand how broken the Republican party has become so while it would be nice to see a reasonable person win, I think most reasonable people have stopped being engaged in the GOP. I think the Republican party will go with Parrott or Cox and I am going with Cox because he may ring more true to the GOP MAGA base (and more likely to show up to vote) and Parrott has lost this race before.
Republican primary: Sources who predicted Neil Parrott
Although he is worn out, he has name recognition and was instrumental in redistricting. [Tom] Royals has the connections and had the momentum but his campaign stagnated with his droning on “…when America’s under attack you send a fighter” in lieu of answering questions. Cox is a non-starter.
Republican primary: Sources who predicted Tom Royals
Haven’t followed the R side but Royals seems to have the $ which helps a lot!
Pagnucco: There is a clear consensus among my sources that Delaney is the favorite even though many believe that Vogel may be within striking distance. One candidate who does not get enough attention is Hagerstown Mayor Tekesha Martinez, who combines good fundraising, western Maryland and a chunk of Black and Brown votes. Among the Republicans, Cox and Parrott seem to have the edge because of their tenure as delegates and their prior experience as GOP nominees.
Final Verdict: In the Democratic primary, 38 sources picked Delaney and 6 picked Vogel. In the Republican primary, 7 sources picked Cox, 6 picked Parrott and 1 picked Royals.
Next: U.S. Senate.