By Adam Pagnucco.
Now let’s hear from dozens of people in my source network about the U.S. Senate Democratic primary. The leading candidates are Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Congressman David Trone. Note: every source who bothered to comment about the Republican primary picked former Governor Larry Hogan to win.
Sources who predicted David Trone
I am for Angela, but I am so jaded I assume the rich folks win, Trone and Delaney.
Months and months of media buys are tough to overcome. Plus, Trone has a solid track record in Congress and comes off as folksy, despite his wealth.
Trone, in a close race, with an assist from purple and red counties. He’ll also do better than expected in the big 3 Dem jurisdictions even if he doesn’t win them.
I think the money will win out. But that may bode well for November. (Also said for Delaney)
Don’t feel amazing about this pick but if David Trone wins this it’s proof the American Dream is alive and well in America. You can be the son of a hog farmer and beverage store owner, start a successful business, and gut out a primary against established political candidates who followed “the right path” and waited their turn. Senate is arguably as tough as it gets in this regard. I haven’t been amazingly pleased that both candidates have tacked so strongly to the left for primary votes when their opponent is going to be Larry Hogan and a center tack is badly needed after 5/14. Will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
Hate to say it, but Trone. He’s so underwhelming.
Trone +1.5. Trone’s campaign sputtered across the finish line with negative ads which wasn’t too terrible because Alsobrooks’s campaign softly glided spending most of her time telling voters which other elected officials supported her. Neither made a strong, coherent closing argument that focused on why they’d be a great US Senator for the voter. Her campaign ended the same way it started: overvaluing the endorsement of electeds and putting fundraising ahead of having a message.
The Alsobrooks campaign has been a lot like Anthony Brown’s race for governor ten years ago – she seems to be running not to lose instead of running to win, relying on a bunch of endorsements from other elected officials and trying to avoid saying anything that could get her in trouble. The problem with sitting on a lead, as Anthony Brown found out, is that you need to have a lead in the first place, and Alsobrooks has consistently trailed Trone. Alsobrooks has not really articulated a clear rationale for her campaign other than the idea that we are due for an African-American woman in the Senate. I think Trone and his money – along with a progressive message – will hold on to win.
This will be close but Trone’s messaging has been spot-on and is simply better aligned with where voters are. Alsobrooks has not run a great campaign up to this point but is finishing stronger, and lower turnout gives her some chance for an upset. My gut says Trone pulls it out, despite all the recent high-profile endorsements she is closing with in her ads. In the GOP primary Hogan is the runaway favorite, and this will be a close race in the fall if Trone wins the primary but polls show a much harder lift for Democrats if Alsobrooks is the nominee. Trone has a fighting chance to hold onto this seat for the Democrats and could beat Hogan, but look for a big blowout win for Hogan in the fall if Alsobrooks wins the Democratic primary.
Trone wins and it won’t be as close as people think.
Trone in a nail biter.
I think Alsobrooks has momentum but I’m still skeptical she’ll be able to overcome Trone’s spending.
I have long thought Trone but much closer than most think (52-48 or so). But she’s definitely got momentum. If the election were in June I’d confidently go Alsobrooks. Now I’m still thinking Trone but not confidently.
I know too many folks who are publicly for Angela but are privately voting for him, and I think folks underestimate how much she is disliked in Prince George’s.
Alsobrooks is catching up, but Trone’s ad blitz has been relentless. My kid and his friends know all about Trone’s Senate run thanks to nonstop YouTube ads for nine months. Trone’s presence is everywhere: social media, TV, mailers. Until recently, Alsobrooks was a relative unknown in many parts of the state. The tide’s changing, but not fast enough for Alsobrooks in the next four days.
Sources who predicted Angela Alsobrooks
Senate: Alsobrooks 48.1, Trone 48.
This is such a drag race. The old white guy with lots of money and the ground game he pays for, versus the inexperienced black woman with lots of Democrat endorsements, buzz and energy. When working the early voting sites, I asked each table what issues differentiate their candidates. Both groups said that the candidates were basically the same on the issues. Trone’s people did indicate that he had experience and would work across the aisle and could self-fund which leaves more money for other candidates. The Alsobrooks camp’s only retort is that we need a black woman in the Senate. We will see if the voters want to check the black/ female box.
Alsobrooks narrowly, but I don’t think she beats Hogan in the general.
Angela Alsobrooks is capturing people’s imagination. My bet is she pulls it off. Trone is dull as dishwater and my (admittedly insider) impression is that his support is either bought or people who dislike Alsobrooks for some reason.
In the Senate race, I am now convinced that the momentum is with Angela and she will win a close race. It felt different there on Wednesday. The Alsobrooks voters are energized and enthusiastic with lots of volunteers everywhere. Trone has paid workers everywhere who sat, ate and some smoked pot and did not bother the voters. Some were from other states and in Germantown, someone told me that a woman came to the polls from West Virginia and did not know what party he was but was relieved when he said he was a Democrat. It was easy work/rest for $350 a day.
Comments in general
It’s interesting how the race has become as much about who can beat Hogan as about the positions of the two candidates. Hogan believes he can go to the senate and be the voice of reason among RepubliSCAMS. We’ve seen what happens to others who have said the same thing.
I flip daily.
Pagnucco: I bet both Democrats’ internal polling shows this race inside the margin of error. The story here is a big early lead for Trone and a spirited comeback by Alsobrooks. Honestly, I have no idea if her final push will be enough to win. As for the GOP, poor Robin Ficker – he could have been the nominee if it were not for Hogan.
Final Verdict: 25 sources predicted Trone would win. 20 sources predicted Alsobrooks would win.
Now let’s go count some real votes!