By Adam Pagnucco.
One issue that has received a lot of attention in the press recently is the worldwide protest movement against Israel’s tactics in its war against Hamas in Gaza. The issue has become a problem for President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign even in Maryland. Could it have an impact in our U.S. Senate race?
The Emerson College poll taken on May 6-8, which found a tight Democratic primary between Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Congressman David Trone, asked respondents this question: “Do you generally approve or disapprove of pro-Palestinian demonstrations on college campuses?” This is how responses break down by party from the poll’s crosstabs.
A plurality of Maryland Democrats approves of the protests. A majority of independents and a large majority of Republicans disapprove. Overall, Maryland voters disapprove by a net 21 points.
In the Democratic primary, here is the split between Alsobrooks and Trone voters.
A majority of Alsobrooks voters approved. In contrast, a plurality of Trone voters disapproved. This may be related to the data on race which is explored below.
Now here is the split among general election voters.
Note the strong net disapproval among undecided voters, which is the same direction as Hogan voters. That makes his position on the issue simple. Alsobrooks’s position is more complicated since her voters approve on net, which is different than the undecideds. That said, this poll found Alsobrooks leading Hogan overall by ten points (48%-38%).
The poll does not break out party by race, and if it did, some of the sample sizes would become problematically small. But for what it’s worth, here are the demographic splits for the total sample.
White voters overwhelmingly disapprove of the Gaza protests while Black voters approve on net. (The samples of Latinos and Asians are too small to get reliable results.) Young people approve, while older people (who vote at much higher rates) disapprove. All educational groups disapprove though there are differences in magnitude. Men are more likely than women to disapprove, but both disapprove on net.
We don’t know what the status of these protests, and the Gaza issue more generally, will be in the fall. The Netanyahu government’s mismanagement of the “day after” question suggests a certain likelihood of continuing Israeli occupation of Gaza and resulting terrible press, protest and diplomatic pushback. President Biden does not relish that prospect. And since this issue separates Alsobrooks voters from undecided voters, Maryland’s Democratic U.S. Senate nominee may not relish it either.