By Adam Pagnucco.
Part One introduced the framework of this series. Now let’s start with total employment. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, upon which this series is based, defines employment as “the count of only filled jobs, whether full or part time, and temporary or permanent, by place of work. The quarterly reports include the establishment’s monthly employment levels for the pay periods that include the 12th of the month.” Total employment includes employment by the federal government, state governments, local governments and the private sector.
The chart below shows Montgomery County’s total employment since 2001, when the current QCEW series began.
Over the entire period, MoCo’s total employment has hovered around 450,000 payroll jobs, dipping above or below depending on the business cycle. It was on a positive trend for nearly a decade before it was interrupted by the COVID pandemic.
Now let’s see how we did last year. Included are the ten largest jurisdictions in the region as well as the regional total, which includes all jurisdictions in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria Metropolitan Statistical Area.
As of this writing, we gained 6,746 payroll jobs for a growth rate of 1.1% in 2023. (The current data is preliminary so the ultimate calculation may vary a bit.) The region’s total employment grew by 1.8%. Of the region’s largest jurisdictions, only Alexandria trailed us. (Get used to seeing Alexandria appear at the bottom.)
Now let’s look at our 2023 total employment as a percentage of our 2019 total employment. This measures our recovery from the pandemic.
As of 2023, our payroll job count was 97% of what it was before COVID struck. Four major jurisdictions – Loudoun, Prince William, Fairfax and Frederick – have fully recovered their pre-COVID job base. Again, only Alexandria trails us among the big jurisdictions.
Finally, the 15-year trend appears below. I picked 2008 as the base year because that was the Washington region’s peak employment year before the Great Recession.
What you see here is not a misprint – MoCo has had almost no job growth since 2008. MoCo’s peak year in total employment was 2006, in which we had 464,876 payroll jobs. At this writing, the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates that we had 458,237 payroll jobs last year. That’s more than a lost decade and a half of job growth.
If you think this is bad, wait until Part Three when we look at private employment.