By Adam Pagnucco.
Part One introduced this series. Part Two examined total employment. Today, we look at private sector employment.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, upon which this series is based, defines employment as “the count of only filled jobs, whether full or part time, and temporary or permanent, by place of work. The quarterly reports include the establishment’s monthly employment levels for the pay periods that include the 12th of the month.” Private employment excludes employment by the federal, state and local governments.
The chart below shows Montgomery County’s private and government employment since 2001, when the current QCEW series began.
MoCo’s government employment has risen steadily over the last 22 years, growing by 18% since 2001. Private employment has fallen by 1.6% over the same period. This shows a fundamental truth about MoCo’s economy – it has been propped up by government for a long time.
Now let’s see how we did last year. Included are the ten largest jurisdictions in the region as well as the regional total, which includes all jurisdictions in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria Metropolitan Statistical Area.
As of this writing, we gained 4,493 private payroll jobs for a growth rate of 1.2% in 2023. (The current data is preliminary so the ultimate calculation may vary a bit.) The region’s total private employment grew by 2.0%. Of the region’s largest jurisdictions, only Fairfax and Alexandria trailed us.
Now let’s look at our 2023 private employment as a percentage of our 2019 total employment. This measures our recovery from the pandemic.
As of 2023, our private job count was 95% of what it was before COVID struck. Three major jurisdictions – Loudoun, Prince William and Fairfax – have fully recovered their pre-COVID job base. Only Alexandria trails us among the big jurisdictions.
Finally, the 15-year trend appears below. I picked 2008 as the base year because that was the Washington region’s peak employment year before the Great Recession.
Prince George’s, Montgomery and Alexandria had fewer private sector jobs in 2023 than they did in 2008. Alexandria, the sick man of the Washington region, fell well short of us but all the other big players exceeded us. This demonstrates the long-standing, stubborn economic problems we have had.
Part Four looks at establishments.