By Adam Pagnucco.
When I break down MoCo election geography, I always start with three broad regions. They are the Democratic Crescent, the areas in and near the Beltway that have high turnout and tilt progressive; Upcounty, the areas north and west of Rockville that have lower turnout and tilt a bit more moderate; and the rest of the county. For definitions of these areas, see my election methodology post.
The chart below shows vote percentage by MoCo region for Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks.
Alsobrooks did best in the crescent, lagged in Upcounty and basically tied everywhere else.
Now let’s look at Congressman David Trone’s vote percentage by MoCo region.
Trone’s performance is the mirror image of Alsobrooks. (It pretty much has to be because none of the other U.S. Senate candidates were close to competitive.) Trone’s congressional district includes most of Upcounty, enhancing his performance there.
The chart below shows Alsobrooks’s percentage margin over Trone by region.
That’s about as stark as it gets, folks. In the 2024 primary, MoCo was effectively three counties in one.
Alsobrooks’s win is a demonstration of the classic formula for winning countywide elections in MoCo. It resembles then-State Senator Jamie Raskin’s defeat of Trone in the 2016 Congress District 8 primary. It also resembles County Executive Marc Elrich’s win in the 2022 primary, although the regional differences were not as large then. Downcounty is coveted political territory in MoCo, and Alsobrooks owned it – a major reason why she won.
We will look at congressional, state and council districts next.