By Adam Pagnucco.

With the passage of a ballot question reducing term limits for the county executive from three to two, County Executive Marc Elrich is ineligible to run for a third term.  That means the race to be his successor is on now.  Not in 2026, not next year – right now.

In preparation for this event, I began asking my source network for their predictions on who will be the next county executive last month.  Here is the email I sent them:

*****

It’s time for another poll of my sources.  And since you are getting this message, that means you!

Election day is on Tuesday, November 5.  One of the many issues that voters will decide by that day is whether term limits for the county executive will be reduced from three to two.  Competing ballot issue committees are now attempting to persuade voters on that question.

No one knows whether reduced term limits will ultimately pass.  But if it does, County Executive Marc Elrich will be ineligible to run for a third term.

This question is therefore premised on a hypothetical.  If the term limits question passes, who do you believe are the five people who have the best chance to be elected as the next county executive?  I am not asking about whether you like these candidates, but rather which of them you believe has the best chance to win.

You get to pick up to five.  You don’t have to rank them.

If you have comments about them, I may use them in my posts but I won’t attribute them to you.  I PROMISE.

In addition, here is an optional question.

Of those five people, who would you pick as having the best chance to win?

So there you have it.  Which five have the best chance to win?  And of them, who is your number one pick?

The due date for participation is Friday, November 1.  I will be sending reminders as we approach that date.  I intend to tally and publish these results in the days after the election if the reduced term limits question passes.  The format will be similar to my Most Influential series of last summer.

Thank you for considering my request to participate.

Adam Pagnucco

*****

As I said in the email, all responses were confidential.  But here are a few aggregated descriptors for those who voted.

Total voters: 81

Elected officials: 14

Former elected officials: 14

Current county government officials and employees: 17

Current state government officials and employees: 10

Former county government officials and employees: 16

The above are just a fraction of my network since a lot of people I asked did not participate.  Still, it’s a good enough sample to deduce a consensus among MoCo’s rather small community of insiders.  And they do have a consensus.

We shall begin unveiling it tomorrow!