By Adam Pagnucco.
Part One summarized my methodology of consulting my source network on who they believe will most likely be the next county executive. Before we get into their picks, a few of my sources offered general comments about the next race. Consider these differing views, none of which are mine.
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Source 1
Here’s the thing, everybody in Rockville seems to think the only real candidates with a shot are in Rockville, and on the county council, and I think they’re wrong. If you look at the history of the job, only one recent exec has ascended to that position directly from the council, and that was Marc Elrich, and the only other people to have done it, Neal Potter and Jim Gleason, were many years ago now. Ike Leggett had been on the council, but did other things in the meantime. Doug Duncan was a Mayor. Sidney Kramer was a State Senator.
I think it’s in part because the council politics are messy, and the day to day of making controversial decisions on controversial issues (like, say, attainable housing) means that rather than having an advantage, sitting council members running for executive may have a disadvantage. And ultimately, Elrich DID have that disadvantage when he first ran, it’s just that the primary electorate was so split between a wide field that he was able to win with a small plurality. He won because too many people ran.
So I think folks are overestimating the likelihood that it’s a sitting councilmember who will win. It’s possible, of course, but the exclusivity of the Rockville conversations are frankly insular and lacking perspective. So my list, to counterbalance that a bit, is entirely people who are NOT from the Rockville circle, who I think would have a shot.
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Source 2
I really don’t think Marc’s NIMBY base is easily transferable. It’s not so much an organized block as much as one off groups Marc picked off over decades whenever there was a chance to keep “those people” out of the neighborhood. So even if a councilmember does a NIMBY heel turn now, I think for most people, they don’t think about zoning very much and probably agree with Obama that we need more housing, they just want it to be somewhere else and they remember that Marc opposed that one specific project they didn’t like.
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Source 3
The Last Place Spoiler – In 2018, County Executive Elrich won by 77 voters. The last place finisher, Bill Frick, got 4,687 votes, the lion’s share would have gone to David Blair, denying Blair the win. In 2022, County Executive Elrich won by a less comfortable 32 vote margin. The last place finisher, Peter James and his personal people mover transportation network, got 2,429 votes. Most of these people voting against the status quo, could have given Blair the win… again. At the end of the day, all these royal rumble races come down to 2, maybe 3 candidates at the most. Hopefully would-be candidates realize this before spending the next year of their lives getting lambasted on social media, chasing after friends and family for $25 “matchable” donations, filling out questionnaires from groups no one has ever heard of that pop up 3 weeks before Election Day after voting has already started and going to forums attended by the same 10 people to get cut off answering a question in only 60 seconds without being able to finish their thought.
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Source 4
There are a number of potential candidates for county executive. Some names have already been circulating, including Andrew Friedson, Will Jawando, Evan Glass, Rich Madaleno, Gabe Albornoz. Other candidates who aren’t being mentioned by political insiders might still enter the race, creating a “surprise, surprise” moment.
The candidates’ strength will be measured by traditional criteria: successful fundraising, name recognition, and institutional support.
However, as demonstrated by unsuccessful county executive candidates like David Blair, who had abundant resources; Hans Riemer, who had decent name recognition; and Tom Hucker, who should have had ample institutional support, these traditional political formulas are no longer guarantees. In fact, Marc Elrich ran in a crowded field and still won by a narrow margin.
Why is that? Well, we need to account for the fact that this is not your Mamá’s Montgomery County.
According to the U.S. Census population estimate from July 2022, the County’s non-Hispanic White population is 40.6%.
This demographic has declined in proportion over the years as the county has become more diverse.
One could pretend that these ongoing demographic changes do not matter and continue to ignore these voting blocs. However, there’s always the possibility that a candidate will engage these growing communities in an authentic way, demonstrate a track record of addressing systemic issues, and maybe, just maybe, the successful candidate will be a member of one of these vibrant communities— a woman maybe?
Let’s see what one of the wealthiest, most liberal, and diverse counties in the nation does when it selects its next county executive. It should be fun!
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Source 5
I think the election of Trump will have a profound impact on the CE race in 2026 in a bunch of ways, but here are three. 1) It probably means higher turnout than 2022, probably matching 2018. I fully expect even worse dysfunction/cruelty from the incoming administration. People will want to do as much as they can to push back, meaning higher turnout for midterms. 2) There will be more candidates than there otherwise would have been had Harris won. Open seat + public finance + people feeling the calling to serve = more candidates. Expect retired former electeds to throw their hat in. 3) You alluded to this in your recent piece about progressive policies, but I do think progressive candidates will fare better in the CE race with Trump in office. I think Marc’s hardcore base in 2018 rose in part because they were so organized around fighting Trump and used that infrastructure to help Marc. The moderate vote split that cycle, but the progressives stayed unified around Marc.
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Source 6
I predict an Evan Glass/Andrew Friedson brawl and they already dislike each other immensely.
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Source 7
A surprise candidate whose name hasn’t been mentioned will be a no-brainer once announced. I don’t know who this is, but someone will come out of the woodwork and we will all say hmmmm.
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Source 8
One thing to consider is that the paradigm changes significantly if ranked choice voting passes before the 2026 election.
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That’s enough general comments. We shall get to the sources’ picks next!