By Adam Pagnucco.
Part One summarized the premise of this series: an examination of key stats from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) comparing Montgomery County to its largest neighbors. Now let’s look at the first stat in the series: population.
With the possible exception of AI, human beings are the sole source of economic growth. After all, humans start businesses, obtain commodities, manufacture products, supply services, invest and consume – all of which create wealth. Rising prosperity is often correlated with population growth. The opposite is also true; just look at the long-term decline of shrinking cities like Baltimore, Detroit and Cleveland.
The chart below shows the most recent one-year population growth rates for the ten largest jurisdictions in the region, as well as the region total.
MoCo was one of three jurisdictions that lost population in 2022. Only Prince George’s County shrank at a greater rate.
Now let’s look at five-year change.
Six of the ten large jurisdictions lost population, reflecting the impact of the pandemic. Four of MoCo’s competitors lost more population over this period.
And now let’s look at ten-year change.
On this measure, MoCo gained population but at a lesser rate than any large jurisdiction in the region other than Fairfax. This slow population growth not only puts the lie to the message of growth-phobic politicians; it also undergirds the county’s performance on all subsequent measures.
BEA tracks population all the way back to 1969. The chart below shows that data for MoCo.
The story here is consistent growth, although with shifting rates. The late 1970s and the mid-2000s saw slow growth while the mid-1980s saw a surge. Over the entire period, the county only recorded one year of population loss (1979) until 2021 and 2022, during which it lost population in both years. (Prince George’s and Fairfax also lost population in both those years.)
This chart shows the county’s percentage of the region’s population.
The county’s share of the region’s population has been falling steadily since the 1990s. That poses a challenge for the county’s role in the region’s economy.
Next: we will look at gross domestic product.