By Adam Pagnucco.
The Banner began its coverage of Montgomery County with a bang yesterday, releasing the results of an exclusive poll by OpinionWorks LLC. The poll contacted 910 county residents and has a margin of error of 3.2% for the full sample. (Smaller sub-samples will have higher margins of error.) Government reporter Ginny Bixby and education reporter Talia Richman wrote about how the poll applies in their subject areas. My perspective is different: I am going to look at it from a campaign strategist’s point of view.
An aside. I was the chief strategist on David Blair’s county executive campaign in 2022. One of the perks of that job was reading the exquisite polling by Hart Research’s Fred Yang, who is not just a great pollster but is also great at explaining his polls to rubes like me. Every time he would send over polling documents, it was like Christmas morning! I spent a lot of time thinking, plotting and writing about what those polls told us about the voters.
The Banner did not ask horse race questions. It’s too early for that because the real campaigns – digital, mail, door knocking and TV – have not really begun yet. The real point of early polls is to learn about the voters and perhaps test messages. There is no message testing in the Banner’s poll but there is plenty about voter sentiment. Since Democratic primaries are THE elections in this county, I am mostly focusing on Democrats when that crosstab is available. There are 475 of them in the poll, suggesting a margin of error in that sample of roughly 4.5%.
Here are a few things that stand out for me.
Democrats’ priorities are a bit different from the full sample.
Following are the top responses from the full sample on this question: “In your opinion, what is the most important issue or challenge facing Montgomery County today, that you would like the County’s leaders to do something about?”
Housing affordability/availability 18%
Crime/safety 14%
Transportation 12%
Cost of living 12%
Overdevelopment/crowding 8%
Improve school quality/School system in decline 7%
Now here are the top responses from Democrats.
Housing affordability/availability 22%
Transportation 15%
Crime/safety 12%
Cost of living 12%
Overdevelopment/crowding 10%
Economy/jobs 7%
Social services 7%
What’s missing among the Dems? The obvious answer is education, forever one of the top two or three issues in MoCo politics. Here might be the reason for that.
Improving school quality is a top priority for only a minority of Democrats.
Only 4% of Democrats cited “Improve school quality/School system in decline” as the most important challenge facing the county. That’s good news for the Apple Ballot. Among Democrats, here are the percentages who consider the quality of schools to be a problem.
Very serious 11%
Somewhat serious 25%
Not much of a problem 34%
Not a problem at all 22%
Total serious 36%
Total not serious 56%
Cost of living is a HUGE issue.
89% of the full sample and very strong majorities of every sub-group consider inflation and the cost of living to be a very serious or serious problem. Here is the distribution among Democrats.
Very serious 54%
Somewhat serious 34%
Not much of a problem 7%
Not a problem at all 2%
Total serious 89%
Total not serious 9%
The problem is that state and local governments don’t have much control over this. They do have control over taxes and they have been raising them.
There are no crosstabs inside the Democrat crosstab, but these are the sub-groups of the total sample (minimum sample size of 100) who are most likely to cite this issue as the one thing they would most like to change about the county.
Age 18-34 31%
Gaithersburg/Germantown 30%
People with some college education but no four year degree 30%
Renters 29%
Unregistered 28%
Democrats 23%
Full sample 22%
Most of these groups have low turnout rates and unregistered people don’t vote. Still, when 89% of Democrats say that this is a problem, politicians must pay attention.
Affordable housing is a BIG issue.
83% of the full sample and strong majorities of every sub-group consider lack of affordable housing to be a very serious or serious problem. Here is the distribution among Democrats.
Very serious 59%
Somewhat serious 28%
Not much of a problem 8%
Not a problem at all 3%
Total serious 87%
Total not serious 11%
Additionally, housing availability is atrocious. Here is what Democrats think about that.
Excellent 5%
Good 18%
Fair 42%
Poor 30%
Total positive 23%
Total negative 71%
What would these Democrats think about the total wipeout of multifamily housing permits we have just seen? And what would they think of Council Member Will Jawando, who is running for executive, telling housing providers “Don’t come here”?
Development politics are complicated.
Development has been a huge issue in the past as both the executive office and council majorities have swung back and forth between leaders who are pro-growth, slow growth and everything in between. And this issue remains complicated today.
Consider how Democrats responded to this question: “How would you describe the pace of growth and development in Montgomery County over the last few years?”
Much too fast 10%
A little too fast 24%
About right 39%
A little too slow 13%
Much too slow 4%
Total too fast 34%
Total too slow 18%
This suggests an advantage for Jawando if he is the only slow growth candidate running for executive. However, it’s not clear how poll respondents are defining growth and development. Is it housing? (We saw them complain about housing availability above.) Is it the commercial sector? (49% of them say the lack of good paying jobs is a serious problem while 41% say it’s not serious.)
Additionally, Dems are split down the middle on “changing residential zoning to allow for more multi-family buildings in single-family zoned neighborhoods” and “changing residential zoning in the County to allow somewhat taller multi-family buildings.” They are also split on whether their own neighborhoods are an appropriate place for more affordable housing.
And then there is this. Here is how Democrats answer this question: “How would you rate the job the County’s leaders have done managing growth and development?”
Excellent 4%
Good 33%
Fair 36%
Poor 17%
Total positive 37%
Total negative 52%
So while Dems rate their leaders highly overall (more on that below), they don’t think they have done well on this issue. But what would they like county leaders to do? Some want less growth and a smaller group want more. Like I said, it’s complicated.
My advice to a candidate: pick a lane and push it. If you try to squirm around on an issue like this, the votes among people who care will go to a candidate who has a stronger position.
Taxes matter to important sub-groups.
Only 4% of Democrats rate taxes as the most important challenge facing the county. But that doesn’t mean taxes are totally unimportant. Consider the sub-groups in the total sample with a minimum sample size of 100 who were the most likely to cite taxes as the one thing they would change in the county.
Republicans 22%
Age 65+ 18%
Lived in MoCo for more than 20 years 15%
Bethesda/Chevy Chase/Potomac 14%
Post graduate degree 14%
Household income 150k+ 14%
Homeowners 14%
Full sample 10%
Democrats only 7%
Except for Republicans, these groups vote at high rates in Democratic primaries. And while this data is not available as a Democrat crosstab, I bet there are plenty of Dems in here – especially among seniors.
Council Member Andrew Friedson, who is running for executive, owns this issue. If I were him, I would target a tax message to these groups and frame it in terms of affordability. Neither Jawando nor Evan Glass, who have supported tax increases in the past, can match him.
Good news for Marc Elrich.
Among Democrats, 57% approve of the job he is doing as executive (16% strongly) and 22% disapprove (9% strongly). Is there any way that he won’t win a council at-large seat (in which he previously served three terms)?
Good news for county council incumbents.
Among Democrats, 59% approve of the job they are doing (12% strongly) and 23% disapprove (6% strongly). If any council incumbent running for reelection gets defeated, that person will have run the most screwed up campaign of all time.
There is a ton more in this poll, especially on schools and land use, so I may revisit it. But that’s enough for now. Read the data and tell me what you think!