By Adam Pagnucco.
The titanic 2026 Democratic primary is over and the precinct results have been published. We all know who was elected, but it’s time to dig deep into the details. What can we learn about what happened, and what lessons can we draw for the future? Get ready for a ton of data in the next few weeks!
This series starts with turnout, the fundamental first issue for any election. Let’s go to 30,000 feet and assess a few broad trends.
First, the chart below shows registered voters by party for each election in MoCo since 1988. The data includes 39 elections, both primary and general and both presidential and gubernatorial.
The Democratic Party dominates MoCo and grew in numbers for many years. However, the party’s registered voters peaked in the 2020 general election at 410,935 and has stagnated since. The Republican Party has been shrinking steadily for 20 years. Other voters, the vast majority of whom are unaffiliated, are the only group that is still growing. They now outnumber Republicans by two to one.
Now let’s consider the percentage of registered voters who belong to each party. Again, the data includes 39 primary and general elections since 1988.
Once again, Democrats peaked in the 2020 general election with 61.0% of registered voters. By the 2026 primary, they comprised 57.7% of registered voters. Republicans also lost percentage over this period, falling from 15.7% to 14.1% of registered voters. Other voters rose from 23.3% to 28.2% of registered voters. This marks a clear trend of MoCo voters turning away from both parties.
Now let’s examine turnout rates for each group in gubernatorial primaries. In MoCo, the Democratic primary has decided the general election winner in every state legislative and local partisan race since 2006. Republican candidates don’t win here, but their party members do vote in consequential statewide and congressional primaries.
Among Democrats, primary turnout rate has stabilized at 35% in 2018, 36% in 2022 and 34% this year. The number of Democrats who voted in the primary fell from 145,762 in 2022 to 137,014 this year. Republicans are in a sorry state: the 13,239 who voted in this year’s primary is the lowest number since at least 1990. As for other voters, their primary turnout rate is regularly in single digits as non-partisan races (like school board) are the only ones that appear on their ballots.
So here’s the summary: Democrats are stagnant, Republicans are collapsing and the only major group of voters who are growing (unaffiliated and others) are denied access to party primary ballots that effectively decide our local elections. No wonder calls are rising to allow unaffiliated voters to vote in party primaries. Whether one agrees with that view or not, here is an undeniable fact: the Democratic gubernatorial primary voters who effectively decide MoCo’s local elections comprise just one-sixth of the county’s adult population. Does that constitute a healthy democracy?
We will get into the details of this year’s primary turnout next.