By Adam Pagnucco.
The District 18 state senate race, the biggest state legislative matchup in MoCo this year, was contested by incumbent Jeff Waldstreicher and challenger Max Socol. How did it turn out?
First, let’s look at campaign finances over the cycle.
Socol did a good job. Under normal circumstances, raising more than $200,000 creates a good chance of getting a seat in the General Assembly. But unfortunately for him, his opponent was Waldstreicher, who has long been an outstanding fundraiser. Socol had enough money to get his message out but Waldstreicher could easily swamp him in the mail. The incumbent also had help from his colleagues in the state senate, who sent negative mail against Socol.
In the end, Waldstreicher’s incumbency, money, near-monopoly on big-time endorsements and vast edge in district experience were too much for Socol. The incumbent beat the challenger by 64%-36%, a win of 28 points. Waldstreicher’s 28-point win was larger than his 12-point win over Dana Beyer in 2018 and former Senator Rich Madaleno’s 17-point win over Beyer in 2014.
The chart below shows how Waldstreicher and Socol fared in the district’s local areas. Waldstreicher appears in blue and Socol in red. Chevy Chase, Kensington, Wheaton and Silver Spring each contributed between a fifth and a quarter of the district’s total votes.
Waldstreicher won every local area, breaking Beyer’s pattern in 2014 and 2018 of winning the district’s northern areas as a challenger. Waldstreicher also won 28 of the district’s 32 voting precincts. Socol came closest in the Silver Spring part of the district (defined here as Georgia Avenue south of Wheaton), which is not surprising considering that he lives there.
Why do people keep underestimating Jeff Waldstreicher? Other than County Executive Marc Elrich, I’m not sure there is another state or county-level politician in MoCo who has won five straight fiercely contested elections against capable opponents. (Rockville Mayor and former City Council Member Bridget Newton has won five straight in her city.) Waldstreicher checks lots of boxes as a candidate – strong fundraising, hard work, lots of endorsements, knowledge of the district and more. Thrashing a decent challenger like Socol by 28 points while the delegates largely stayed out of the race demonstrates just how difficult he is to defeat.
As for Socol, he ran in the wrong race. He should have run for delegate. Against Waldstreicher, he needed to get a majority of votes cast – a tall order against a veteran incumbent. But in a delegate race, a majority is not necessary – all a candidate has to do is finish in the top three. Socol’s strategy was to run as far left as possible. Such a strategy is not a bad one for a progressive district like 18, and while the incumbent delegates are certainly progressive, Socol could have given them a tough contest with the $200,000+ he raised. Throw in Delegate Al Carr’s last-second switch to a county council race and Socol could be headed to Annapolis right now.
Max Socol showed enough potential that he should consider running again. But if he wants to win, maybe he should run against someone other than Jeff Waldstreicher!