By Adam Pagnucco.
Most readers of this site live in Montgomery County, as do I, and I bet a big majority of us think this is a good place to live. Sure, the traffic is a bummer, the cost of living is high, some of the politicians are banana cakes and the snow plowing could be quicker. But we have awesome neighborhoods, amenities, restaurants and parks, a strong school system and tons of interesting and cool people. Much to the chagrin of local politicians, I’m not moving out anytime soon.
But not everyone agrees on the merits of MoCo. There is one politician in particular who is running for office by blasting Montgomery County virtually every single day on the campaign trail. In fact, his campaign slogan is a direct attack on our county, something that I don’t recall seeing in the past.
Meet State Senator Michael Hough, who is running for Frederick County Executive.
At first glance, Hough seems like a typical Western Maryland Republican. His platform includes preserving open space, preventing overcrowding of schools, opposing tax hikes, alleviating traffic congestion and supporting efforts by the county’s sheriff to deport illegal immigrants who commit crime. So far, none of this is exceptional. But Hough adds an edge to it. His whole candidacy is built around this concept:
“We must stop Frederick County from becoming Montgomery County North.”
Just look at his campaign video, which is shown below. In case the video is someday taken down, I include a transcript for the sake of posterity.
Montgomery County is crumbling. Over-development. Higher taxes. Rising crime. Whole communities losing their way of life. Frederick County could be next. But Mike Hough will fight back. Mike Hough is the only candidate for county executive who will ban the construction of high-density housing, he’ll preserve the heart of our community, bring down the skyrocketing cost of living and keep our families safe. Stop Frederick County from becoming Montgomery County North. Mike Hough for Frederick County Executive.
It’s not just this video. The slogan appears on his website. It’s on his social media. His campaign repeats it endlessly. He even put the slogan on his campaign signs.
From Hough’s Facebook page.
So what should we make of this? There is no question that spillover from MoCo has impacted Frederick. According to the Internal Revenue Service’s tax migration statistics, from 2011 through 2020, 16,037 people moved into MoCo from Frederick and 39,378 people moved into Frederick from MoCo – a net migration into Frederick of 23,341 people. That’s 9% of Frederick County’s population. Compare that to the net 9,029 people who moved from MoCo to Virginia during the same period.
On the one hand, the flow of people from MoCo to Frederick has been a huge economic plus for Frederick. In terms of real 2020 inflation-adjusted dollars, the combined adjusted gross income (AGI) of people moving from Frederick to MoCo was $606 million from 2011 through 2020. The combined AGI of people moving from MoCo to Frederick was $1.51 billion. That’s a net gain of $904 million over the decade, a significant boost for Frederick’s tax base.
Hough bashes his Democratic opponent, County Council Member Jessica Fitzwater, for accepting fundraising help from MoCo politicians.
But there are costs too. For example, data from the Maryland Association of Realtors shows that the median price of a home in Frederick County rose from $270,000 in 2015 to $410,000 in 2021, an increase of 52%. That’s higher than median home price increases in Howard County (21%), MoCo (33%), Carroll County (38%) and the state as a whole (42%) over the same period. Migration from MoCo no doubt had a role in that price increase.
Migration has also helped to change Frederick County’s demographics. According to the decennial census, Frederick was 88% White non-Hispanic, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic and 2% Asian in 2000. By 2020, Frederick was 68% White non-Hispanic, 10% Black, 12% Hispanic and 5% Asian. This is a pace of demographic change that is as dramatic as anywhere else in the state and no doubt causes uneasiness in some parts of the county’s electorate.
Give Hough credit. He stays on message.
I asked Mike Hough for an interview and he has not yet responded. What do you think of that, readers? It will be interesting to see if his anti-MoCo politics delivers victory in Frederick County.