By Adam Pagnucco.
One of my readers – former Council Member George Leventhal – asked me the following question on Twitter.
I have appreciated your recent writing. Do you have data showing a correlation between the number of police officers and the prevalence of crime? Are we sure that hiring more officers makes any difference?
George is a very smart guy and this was an interesting question. As I began writing a reply, I could tell that it would be too long for Twitter. So here we are – another post on policing and crime!
Let’s start with a column on crime I wrote for Bethesda Beat in 2019. Back then, I found that rates of violent and property crime in Montgomery County were at their lowest levels since the 1970s. But the data I had at that time ended in 2017. What was interesting about the reaction to that column was that no one seemed to believe me. Even then, folks believed that there was a crime wave even when there was not. This illustrates a central problem with public discussion of crime: fear, ideology and rumor tend to dominate any consideration of data.
That was the world of 2017. What has happened since then? In FY21 and FY22, the county cut full-time equivalent positions in the police department. The FY22 cuts included nearly 30 sworn officers. By FY23, FTEs were at a similar level to FY17. The county also removed police officers from schools in 2021.
At the same time, vacancies were picking up. Council analyst Susan Farag posted the chart below in one of her staff packets.
Farag had been issuing warnings about police staffing for years. Just last month, she noted soaring rates of resignations and retirements and rising average call response times.
Now what about crime? In my summary post, I found that property crime had been creeping up since 2018. Violent crime dropped during the pandemic and spiked afterwards. Crimes against society – marijuana, narcotics, DUI and more – appeared to have lower rates of enforcement.
Crime did not rise everywhere in the county. Many local areas did not see increases in crime. Violent crime spiked in Silver Spring, Rockville and Gaithersburg. Property crime spiked in Downcounty.
So yes, there is a definite correlation between police department staffing issues and rising crime. Does that prove causation? No. Does it prove that hiring more officers will “fix” crime? No. But it would not hurt and a whole ton of residents would be willing to try it, especially since they are being asked to pay a 10 percent property tax hike for a wholesale expansion of government.
All of the above said, it’s not just about numbers.
As you might guess, I have been hearing a lot from our public safety folks. They are a different breed. How many of us are expected to potentially sacrifice our lives for our employer and customers (in their case, the public)? Not many. It takes a different level of commitment to be a police officer, a fire fighter, a deputy sheriff or a correction officer than most other jobs.
By and large, the folks who contact me do not complain about criminals or compensation. They expect their jobs to be challenging and they do not become county employees to get rich. Their number one complaint is that they feel our elected officials do not have their backs. They feel like they could do an excellent job 99.9% of the time, but if they screw up just once, they will become whipping boys for politicians. It’s not just about Council Members Will Jawando and Kristin Mink calling for defunding the police. It’s also about the absence of positive recognition when they do good work. It’s also about how county leaders say they are concerned about crime at the same time that they set up a task force and an advisory commission that deplore their work and propose mass abolition of officers. The appointment of one of Jawando’s former staffers to oversee police accountability is only the latest irritant in a long line of them.
Let me ask you this question. Would you accept a job in which your employer expects you to sacrifice your life and in return does not respect you or support your work? How long would you remain in such a job?
It appears as if county leaders are coming around slowly from the peak days of the defund movement. Their constituents are demanding a response to crime and they are no longer cutting police department jobs. The $20,000 recruitment bonus seems like a positive step and the new collective bargaining agreement is generous (as are the previous ones).
But making progress on crime isn’t just about more money. It’s about changing how county leaders deal with the police department. When an officer screws up, there does not have to be a new bill and a public flogging every single time. The county has already imposed more than 20 reform mandates on the police department since the summer of 2020. What we need is perspective. Let’s hold the police to a high standard of performance with accountability for those who fall short. Let’s also support their work and appreciate their achievements.
Because when a criminal breaks into your house, it won’t be a politician who comes to save you.