By Adam Pagnucco.
In the aftermath of Governor Wes Moore’s endorsement of Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for U.S. Senate, this question is no doubt reverberating throughout state politics:
Could Congressman David Trone drop out of the race and run again in District 6?
Trone, who started with nothing and built a huge and wildly successful business, is not in the habit of obeying the instructions of others. But let’s be honest – the exit of Council Member Will Jawando on Friday and the governor’s endorsement of Alsobrooks on Monday (in which he was joined by Jawando) cannot be a coincidence. It all seems so neat, so orchestrated and so designed to create the feel of a coming coronation of Alsobrooks. The only thing standing between Alsobrooks and the Capitol is Trone.
That’s big pressure on Trone and it has three aspects.
First, Alsobrooks has wrapped up a huge chunk of the Maryland political establishment. Her supporters include Moore; U.S. Senator Chris Van Hollen; Congressmen Steny Hoyer, Glenn Ivey and Kweisi Mfume; Comptroller Brooke Lierman; the county executives of Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Howard counties; Speaker Adrienne Jones and a ton of state legislators and local officials from around the state.
One of many pictures we will see of Alsobrooks and Moore during this campaign. From Alsobrooks’s Twitter account.
Second, only three Black women have ever served in the U.S. Senate: Carol Moseley Braun, who served one term from Illinois; Kamala Harris, who served part of one term from California; and Laphonza Butler, who was just appointed to fill a vacancy in California. Delaware Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester could join them next year. Alsobrooks’s candidacy is a rare opportunity and demographic diversity matters in Democratic Party politics.
Third, there is growing uneasiness about the Democrats’ ability to hold Trone’s U.S. House seat in District 6. While the Dems have held the seat since John Delaney’s election in 2012, they have only done it by single digits in 2014 (1.5 points) and 2022 (9.6 points). Trone has self-financed $17.9 million in 2018, $2.5 million in 2020 and $9.9 million in 2022 to win and hold it. Because of redistricting, CD6 is now slightly more Republican than it used to be. None of the current Democratic candidates in CD6 have the ability to pour as much money into the race as Trone could if the GOP mounts a strong push. The fear of a Republican victory is so pervasive that I have spoken to Trone supporters who privately hope he would drop down to keep the seat safe for the Democrats.
And so the pressure builds.
Trone faces three paths. First, if he stays in the U.S. Senate race and wins, the Democratic establishment will play nice with him, but it will never be forgotten that he cost Maryland a rare chance to elect a Black woman to the Senate. Second, if he stays in the race and loses, he will be out of politics – except when people call him to ask for money. Third, if he drops down to his old U.S. House seat, he will be proclaimed a hero by Dem elites for making a sacrifice to stop a red takeover of CD6 – and perhaps the entire House of Representatives.
David Trone is a legitimately tough guy who can’t be bullied. Many in the alcohol industry have tried and failed. But Trone is also a rational player who is not immune to the sentiments of influential people in his party. We shall see what he does in the coming weeks.