Guest column by Joel Rubin, former CD6 Democratic candidate.
When Montgomery County voters vote in the upcoming Democratic primary on May 14th, there will be multiple issues for them to consider in the 6th Congressional District race. CD6 may be unfamiliar territory for many of the county’s residents, as CD8 covers most of it, but nonetheless, nearly 40% of the likely voters in the CD6 race will come from MoCo.
What’s unique about CD6 is that, unlike CD8, it’s not a hard blue gerrymandered district. It’s as purple as a congressional seat gets these days, certainly in Maryland, with then-incumbent David Trone taking it in 2022 by less than 10 points.
When I travelled the district as a candidate, I found it to be shockingly pragmatic about what people were looking for in a Democratic nominee. That’s because everyone knew that there would be a competitive general election in the fall. Remember: for CD8, the decisive election is the primary. For CD6, it’s the general.
Which brings us to Montgomery County, a much more liberal county than the other counties in CD6. But why is this important? It’s important because MoCo’s CD6 voters need to think about their impact on the overall trajectory of the race and the broader views of the CD6 electorate. They need to evaluate a candidate’s ability to win all of CD6, not just the MoCo portions.
In practical terms, this means that while issues like combating climate change and standing up for our democracy might be the winning issues for MoCo, other issues, such as combating the opioid crisis, extending rural broadband, and dealing effectively with immigration top the list in the majority of CD6, which is found in places like Frederick, Washington, Allegany, and Garrett counties. These are the kinds of issues that the voters of CD6, in my personal interactions on the campaign trail, cared about. They also cared deeply about the climate, our democracy, and abortion rights, but these were not the items that rose to the top.
The result is that there’s a greater responsibility now at play for CD6’s MoCo voters than just the traditional “I’ll vote for the candidate who represents me most” candidate. These voters must also think about voting for “the candidate who’s most likely to win” in this deeply purple, largely rural district.
So, for MoCo Democrats to hold the seat, they must think strategically about their choice at the ballot box. Their primary candidate evaluation criteria must therefore center on the question of whether a candidate can win this purple seat. That’s both a challenge and a responsibility – to look beyond just one’s personal priorities and also to the question of the greater good. Pragmatism, as is the personality of CD6, must reign supreme.
And for Democrats, the question of winnability matters now more than ever. The fact is that there are only about 45 seats nationally that are competitive in the U.S. House of Representatives. 390 are not. This means that these 45 seats – one of which is in CD6 – are the majority makers in the House. And with the margin for the House Republican majority being only one seat today, the stakes for picking a winner are as high as they’ve ever been.
And that’s where we get to my bottom line. It’s no secret that this seat is being targeted by Republicans for a pick-up. This is a seat that Republicans ruefully lost in 2012 after its control was wrested from Roscoe Bartlett’s two-decade reign. They want it back. Badly.
To prevent this, Democrats need to pick a candidate with the kind of staying power, resources, and unity building skillset that’s needed to not just get base Democratic voters out on Election Day, but one that can also attract the hefty number of Independents – roughly 17% of registered voters in CD6 – that will decide who represents them in Washington.
This is the kind of primary election that therefore truly challenges CD6 Democratic primary voters, particularly in MoCo, to think outside of their partisan silo. Because if the goal is to win – and it should be – they must make a choice that will be attractive to the full range of views of the CD6 electorate.
That, as it turns out, may just be what our democracy needs right now.
Joel Rubin is a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, former CD6 Democratic candidate and former Vice Mayor of the Town of Chevy Chase.