By Adam Pagnucco.
As of 11:30 PM on election night, here are the leaders in the races for the U.S. Senate Democratic primary, the Congressional District 6 Democratic and Republican primaries and the school board primaries. These results include all early votes, some mail votes and most election day votes, so they are incomplete. Along with the vote totals, I am reporting the number of mail ballots received but not yet counted as of yesterday to give you an idea of how mail will affect these races. Note: This understates the ultimate number of mail ballots because some have not yet come in but will still be postmarked by election day.
U.S. Senate Democratic Primary
1,788 of 1,957 precincts reporting
Angela Alsobrooks: 228,781 (54%)
David Trone: 179,934 (42%)
Gap: Alsobrooks +48,847
Mail ballots received but not yet counted as of 5/13/24: 136,540
My take: Alsobrooks has big leads on Trone in early vote and election day votes. As I wrote earlier tonight, Trone would need more than a 20 point lead in the remaining mail ballots to catch her. Right now he leads by 10 points in mail. It’s not going to happen. Alsobrooks wins.
CD6 Democratic Primary
186 of 213 precincts reporting
April McClain Delaney: 12,049 (39%)
Joe Vogel: 8,103 (26%)
Ashwani Jain: 2,624 (9%)
Gap: Delaney +3,946
Mail ballots received but not yet counted as of 5/13/24: 15,981
My take: Delaney leads in all three modes (early, election day and mail). Sure, there will be at least 16,000 more mail votes cast, but there is no reason to believe Vogel will win them. Fred Yang’s last poll looks spot on.
CD6 Republican Primary
186 of 213 precincts reporting
Neil Parrott: 17,575 (48%)
Dan Cox: 10,878 (30%)
Mariela Roca: 4,323 (12%)
Gap: Parrott +6,697
Mail ballots received but not yet counted as of 5/13/24: 6,602
My take: Parrott returns to the general election. He won’t be an easy mark for the Democrats.
School Board At-Large Primary (Top Two Advance to General Election)
254 of 257 precincts reporting
Lynne Harris: 26,810 (31%)
Rita Montoya: 26,774 (31%)
Melissa Kim: 13,326 (15%)
Gap: Montoya +13,448 over Kim
Mail ballots received but not yet counted as of 5/13/24: 38,922
My take: Incumbent and Apple Ballot. It probably helped Harris that she had the first ballot position.
School Board District 2 Primary (Top Two Advance to General Election)
254 of 257 precincts reporting
Natalie Zimmerman: 38,805 (46%)
Brenda Diaz: 18,738 (22%)
Rebecca Smondrowski: 14,195 (17%)
Gap: Diaz +4,543 over Smondrowski
Mail ballots received but not yet counted as of 5/13/24: 38,855
My take: The Apple was big, red and juicy. Diaz had top ballot position. Does Smondrowski have a problem or will her edge in mail ballots (in which she currently leads Diaz by 864 votes) save her?
School Board District 4 Primary (Top Two Advance to General Election)
254 of 257 precincts reporting
Laura Stewart: 40,039 (47%)
Shebra Evans: 22,796 (26%)
Bethany Mandel: 21,817 (26%)
Gap: Evans +979 over Mandel
Mail ballots received but not yet counted as of 5/13/24: 38,838
My take: Another big, red and juicy Apple. Who will win the second slot? Evans is an incumbent who ran no campaign. Mandel was much more active but has neither the Apple nor incumbency. Evans leads mail ballots cast so far by 1,016 votes, so if the remaining ones hold to that pattern, she will advance.