By Adam Pagnucco.
In this series’ prior posts, we examined ten economic indicators comparing Montgomery County to the region and its largest jurisdictions. Let’s summarize with these ten year comparisons.
Population Growth, 2012-22
Region: +8.1%
MoCo: +4.5%
MoCo rank of 10 large jurisdictions: 9
Real Gross Domestic Product Growth, 2012-22
Region: +19.4%
MoCo: +9.0%
MoCo rank of 10 large jurisdictions: 9
Real Per Capita Gross Domestic Product Growth, 2012-22
Region: +10.4%
MoCo: +4.3%
MoCo rank of 10 large jurisdictions: 8
Real Personal Income Growth, 2012-22
Region: +18.2%
MoCo: +5.5%
MoCo rank of 10 large jurisdictions: 10
Real Per Capita Personal Income Growth, 2012-22
Region: +9.3%
MoCo: +0.9%
MoCo rank of 10 large jurisdictions: 10
Wage and Salary Employment Growth, 2012-22
Region: +7.9%
MoCo: +3.2%
MoCo rank of 10 large jurisdictions: 9
Proprietors Employment Growth, 2012-22
Region: +47.8%
MoCo: +33.9%
MoCo rank of 10 large jurisdictions: 10
Proprietors Real Income Growth, 2012-22
Region: -20.6%
MoCo: -53.7%
MoCo rank of 10 large jurisdictions: 10
Real GDP from Construction Growth, 2012-22
Region: +4.1%
MoCo: -22.1%
MoCo rank of 8 large jurisdictions: 8
Construction Employment Growth, 2012-22
Region: +20.1%
MoCo: +11.1%
MoCo rank of 8 large jurisdictions: 7
Let’s say this flat out:
THIS SHOULD NOT BE.
Consider Montgomery County in comparison to our rivals. All of us have skilled labor, educated residents, lots of entrepreneurs, commercial and residential wealth, nice neighborhoods and well-financed school systems. On these fundamentals, there is no real difference between us and the rest of the region. And yet we consistently underachieve relative to other jurisdictions who look like we do.
Talk to folks who know a lot about the county and the region and they will give you a long list of reasons for this: higher individual and corporate income taxes than Virginia; colossal energy taxes; impact taxes that are the highest in Maryland; a shortage of transportation investment relative to Virginia; the county’s antiquated liquor monopoly; restrictions on the nighttime economy; and regulatory regimes like building electrification, building energy performance standards and rent control (which to be fair is brand new). Who knows what role each of these things plays, but their cumulative impact is unhelpful. And while our policymakers do have fiscal and economic impact statements to weigh the effect of these items individually, they don’t consider their impact when they are all levied together.
That’s not an accident. Given our political structure of closed Democratic primaries and progressive interest group supremacy, it’s difficult for our leaders to cite economic impact when considering whether to say no to the latest asks. After all, politics is the business of getting votes right now, whereas economics draws on the sweep of generations. Many years ago, a trend of rising progress worked in MoCo’s favor. As the data in this series demonstrates, it is now working in favor of our competitors – and against us.
I first wrote about the relationship between the county’s economy and budget back in 2007. In all those years, I don’t recall anyone arguing that the two aren’t fundamentally related. But that has not affected how our political players behave. Several months ago, as talk of tax increases heated up once again, I told one of the county’s most powerful leaders that we keep putting our short-term desires ahead of our long-term prosperity, and that would bite us in the end. The person did not argue with me, not one word. And then this person resumed discussion of why we need another tax hike.
The near term is bleak, as I recently wrote in the Gathering Storm. Should we expect politicians who have presided over our economic decline to now get us out of it? Instead of them, I ask the following of you. Would you like to get a higher paying job without having to commute to D.C. or Virginia? Would you like to start a new business without your county government treating you as a milk-spraying cash cow? Would you like to have an abundant number of housing options that you can afford? Would you like to stop paying more and more for services that aren’t necessarily getting better? Would you like to retire in your home without having cost increases pile up and force you out? Would you like to have a system that works better for you and your family?
You deserve a fair shot at these things. And this county does not lack for talent – it’s one of the most educated and talented communities on Planet Earth. But first, we need to have leadership that prioritizes growing the pie as much as handing out the slices. Your vote will determine that leadership.
Let’s bear that in mind as we proceed to the next round of elections.