By Adam Pagnucco.
Let’s review what we have learned earlier in this series.
First, Maryland has substantial geographic and demographic variations that affect its elections. Close to 40% of its Democratic primary votes come from three heavily Black jurisdictions. In 2016, those jurisdictions were the only ones that voted for Donna Edwards in her U.S. Senate primary against Chris Van Hollen. Edwards’s votes overall had a strong positive correlation with the Black percentage of population and a strong negative correlation with the White percentage of population.
Second, while Van Hollen crushed Edwards in his native Montgomery County, Edwards was more competitive in MoCo local areas with large Black populations. This mirrored her performance across the state. Edward’s votes partly resembled the 2022 council at-large performance of Will Jawando, who also excelled in MoCo’s heavily Black local areas.
Let’s say it again: race matters.
In a two-person race with Congressman David Trone, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks could count on a strong base in her own county plus Baltimore City and Charles County, the other primarily Black jurisdictions in Maryland. Together, those three jurisdictions account for nearly 40% of Democratic primary voters. She could also make inroads in MoCo’s heavily Black local areas, especially those along the U.S. 29 corridor. The election would then come down to a duel between her and Trone in the Baltimore suburbs, areas where Alsobrooks has some influential endorsements (including the executives of Baltimore and Anne Arundel counties). Alsobrooks would have a shot in that race and it could be close in the end.
But now let’s add Jawando to the field. If he can raise enough money, he would take votes that might otherwise go to Alsobrooks around U.S. 29 in MoCo and perhaps in Baltimore City and Charles County too. He has even scooped up a handful of endorsements in Prince George’s. Since he is running sharply to the left, he could also win progressive votes that are allergic to Trone and would probably go to Alsobrooks in a two-person race. It’s unlikely that any of Jawando’s votes would come from Trone, whom he has already attacked.
All of this is great for Trone. He gets to clean up in western MoCo, Frederick and the rural areas while progressives and Black Democrats split between Alsobrooks and Jawando. Add that to $30 million in commercials on Washington and Baltimore TV stations and he could be paying for Chuck Schumer’s allies for years.
At the same time, a competitive Jawando candidacy is a problem for Alsobrooks. With Jawando in the race, she will have to spend money on voters that she would have locked up in a two-person contest with Trone. Jawando’s presence narrows her path to the U.S. Senate and could make the difference in a close election.
Alsobrooks isn’t the only one who has a potential problem. If Jawando runs strong in Black precincts and Trone wins a tight race, Jawando will be regarded as spoiling a rare opportunity for a Black woman to win a U.S. Senate seat. Does Jawando want to risk bearing such a burden?
Unlike many questions, these will eventually be answered. The 2024 primary is on May 14. Destiny awaits Alsobrooks, Trone, Jawando and the rest of us.