By Adam Pagnucco.
New Census estimates of population in 2023 show slow growth for most of Maryland and the D.C. region. Compared with 2020, population growth is close to nil in many areas.
Montgomery County’s population grew by 5,407 people to 1,058,474 in the year ended July 1, 2023. That’s a one-year growth rate of 0.5%, slightly faster than Maryland’s growth rate of 0.3%. The chart below shows population growth in each Maryland county last year.
Since April 1, 2020, Montgomery County has lost 3,591 people, a loss of 0.3% of its population. Maryland has gained 3,000 people over the time period, a gain of 0.05%. The chart below shows population growth in each Maryland county from April 1, 2020 through July 1, 2023.
Now let’s look at the Washington region, which includes the District of Columbia, 5 Maryland jurisdictions, 17 Virginia jurisdictions and 1 West Virginia jurisdiction. The chart below shows population growth in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metropolitan statistical area as well as its largest jurisdictions last year. (Howard County is not part of the metro area but I am showing it anyway since it’s next door to us.)
All the large Washington region jurisdictions gained population last year, but that is not the case since 2020. The chart below shows population growth in the region and its largest jurisdictions from April 1, 2020 through July 1, 2023.
Two things are clear from this data. First, much of our region has not yet recovered to its pre-pandemic population peak. And second, Frederick County has taken over from Loudoun County as the region’s growth leader. We know from IRS tax data that part of Frederick’s growth has been driven by taxpayer migration out of Montgomery County.
It’s a good thing that the region is showing signs of recovery from the tough days of the pandemic. However, one wonders if high home prices and continued telework are barriers to a full rebound.