By Adam Pagnucco.
So far, every poll I have seen shows Congressman David Trone leading Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in this year’s U.S. Senate race. But a new poll by a well-known Maryland pollster shows that may be about to change.
Last Friday, Axios reported on an internal poll by Alsobrooks’s campaign showing a race within the margin of error. I asked her pollster, Fred Yang of Garin Hart Yang, for the polling memo and he graciously provided it. I reprint the memo’s contents below and then I’ll have a comment.
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To: Alsobrooks for Senate
From: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
Date: April 12, 2024
Re: Alsobrooks gaining and within margin of error in latest tracking survey
Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among 600 likely Democratic primary voters (margin of error +4) between April 8 and 10, 2024. The survey is fully representative of a Maryland Democratic primary electorate by key geographic and demographic factors (such as age, gender, and race), and the sample was drawn from the voter file.
The following are the key findings.
Congressman Trone managed to amass double digit leads in early 2024 (per his own publicly released polls) due largely to his massive personal spending, which allowed him to start paid tv communications last May and have continued – totaling more than $22 million as of this week. However, Angela Alsobrooks (who just started television ads roughly a month ago) has nearly erased Trone’s advantage and she has pulled to within the poll’s margin of error:
Our recent survey confirms two recently released media polls which have shown that Trone’s support has stalled (despite his continued and massive spending) and that his once double-digit lead has eroded. In addition, a fuller analysis behind the top-line trial heat numbers provides extremely encouraging news for Alsobrooks’ ability to maintain her momentum and eventually pull ahead over the next 5 weeks. First, Angela is gaining despite Trone’s advantage in statewide name recognition (81% Trone, 66% Alsbrooks), and our survey shows that her vote will grow as she continues to get better known. For example, among primary voters who recognize BOTH Trone and Alsobrooks, she leads by a 48% to 39% margin — which is a good indication of where the race is likely headed once Alsobrooks’ name recognition increases.
Second, Angela has more committed support, which is so critical in a primary election where turnout is essential — 70% of Alsobrooks voters say they support her strongly, compared to 61% of Trone voters who give their candidate the same intensity.
In summary, Angela Alsobrooks’ grassroots, people-powered campaign has been making steady progress in the face of David Trone’s massive personal spending that has passed the $40 million mark, and she is poised to overtake the Congressman as long as she has the resources to continue a strong field operation AND paid communications that share her positive record of work and what she will do for Marylanders in the U.S. Senate.
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My take: It’s certainly true that Trone was on TV and in the mailboxes much earlier than Alsobrooks. His first TV ad ran statewide last May and his first two mailers went out shortly afterwards. His TV, mail and digital have continued since then. Alsobrooks went on TV in February and I have not seen any mail from her. Accordingly, I find it credible that Trone’s lead has been at least partially due to his unchallenged dominance of mass comms. And I have been anticipating that once Alsobrooks started her comms program, the lead would shrink. Trone’s own pollster has conceded that publicly.
This poll brings back memories for me. Two years ago, Fred Yang was David Blair’s pollster in the Montgomery County executive race and I was the campaign’s strategist. Fred had done several polls in the race and as we launched our comms, County Executive Marc Elrich’s early lead began to close. That was confirmed by outside polling and Fred’s last poll, which we released, showed a race within the margin of error. The end result was a 32-vote win by Elrich, meaning that Fred’s polling was on the money.
The two races are different in terms of the nature of the gap to be closed. In our case, we had to rise to match Elrich’s advantages of incumbency and the county government’s $12 million media juggernaut. In Alsobrooks’s case, she has to rise to match Trone’s immense self-funding. The common element is the use of mass comms to close the gap.
Of all the things I learned in 2021 and 2022, here is one thing I won’t forget: when Fred Yang says his client is catching up, you can take that to the bank. This U.S. Senate campaign is approaching one hell of a finish.
Yang’s memo appears below.
