By Adam Pagnucco.
Two recent polls have shown a close race in the Congressional District 6 Democratic primary. A poll commissioned by Delegate Joe Vogel from March 14-17 showed April McClain Delaney leading Vogel 17%-10%, within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error, with 48% undecided. Another poll commissioned by Equality PAC, which is backing Vogel, from April 25-26 showed Vogel and Delaney tied at 24% with 36% undecided.
Delaney’s campaign has now released its own internal poll showing her at 37%, Vogel at 24%, no one else competitive and 22% undecided. This poll was conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang (which is also polling for Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks) and surveyed 400 likely Democratic voters on May 6-7 with a margin of error of +/-5.0%. Since Delaney’s lead is outside the margin of error, the polling memo claims that “she is on track” to win with a week to go in the primary.
Aside from the polling data itself, what interests me is the struggle over perception by the rival campaigns. In a press release yesterday, the Vogel campaign characterized the Equality PAC poll as finding “a commanding lead” for Vogel based on its message testing positing a potential 14-point lead. But let’s be clear about this: message testing shows how a candidate could potentially improve their numbers – it does not in any way summarize the existing state of a race. Delaney on the other hand wishes to reinforce her position as the presumed front-runner. Both candidates badly want to look like a winner even before all the votes are cast.
That’s what real competition looks like, folks!
Garin-Hart-Yang’s polling memo is reprinted below.
*****
To: April McClain Delaney for Congress
From: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
Date: May 8, 2024
Re: Just-completed 6th CD survey shows Delaney with comfortable lead
Between May 6 and 7, 2024, Garin-Hart-Yang Research conducted a telephone survey among a sample of 400 likely Democratic primary voters in Maryland’s 6th Congressional District. The survey, which is representative of 6th CD Democrats by key demographic factors, has a margin of error of +5.0%, and was conducted off the voter file of registered Democrats.
Our latest survey shows April with a double-digit lead over her nearest competitor heading into the last week of the primary election. Currently, April garners 37% support, Joe Vogel trails with 24% support, other candidates in the race combined receive 17%, and one-fifth (22%) remain undecided.
We are aware there is other polling that shows a closer race, but that survey was conducted nearly two weeks ago (April 25-26) before several important developments in April’s campaign, such as airing positive ads on broadcast television AND receiving the Washington Post’s enthusiastic endorsement on May 3rd.
The breadth of April’s electoral support is impressive – she has double-digit leads in EVERY part of the district, beats Vogel by 34%-26% among men and by 38%-23% among women. In addition, she leads narrowly among voters ages 18 to 34, and leads by double-digits among progressives, liberals, and moderates.
Most importantly, among the share of the electorate that knows BOTH candidates (a number that will surely grow as both candidates gain in name recognition AND voters start to pay more attention), April has a seventeen-point lead – which is a strong indicator of where this race is headed.
Primary elections are fluid, and we note that a notable 22% of 6th CD primary voters remain undecided. But with the resources, the positive message about April’s background in government and the non-profit sector, and her endorsements from respected leaders such as Congressman Raskin, the polling indicates that she is on track to be the Democratic nominee next Tuesday.
