By Adam Pagnucco.

In the wake of MCPS’s layoff-free budget adjustments, I keep hearing the same question asked about MCPS leadership over and over:

What were they thinking?

First, let’s recap.  Shortly before the county council’s vote on MCPS’s operating budget, the school system notified its unions that reductions in force (RIFs) were under consideration as a response to the council’s not fully funding its budget request.  That provoked pushback from the council and a fierce reaction from the teachers union, which called out MCPS’s chief operating officer.  MCPS subsequently notified the community of potential RIFs that “would impact all employee groups” and told principals to prepare for staffing reductions.  All of this was occurring despite the fact that the school system had been receiving regular large budget increases, was not in obvious distress according to its financial reports and had a long history of making budget adjustments without RIFs.  Later, MCPS told the teachers that RIFs were not planned but furloughs were still possible.  When the final budget package was announced, no furloughs were included and staffing changes were managed through vacancies, retirements and transfers.  MCPS confirmed, “…It is likely that no currently employed teachers will face a job loss.”

The school board meets on Tuesday.

All of the above happened within 19 days.  It was one of the wildest 19 day stretches in county government I have seen since I started writing about Montgomery County in 2006.  Let’s remember that that period included the Great Recession, numerous tax hikes, many inspector general reports, several political feuds and a few scandals.

Did we really have to go through this?

I have seen a lot of mishaps in government over the years.  Conspiracy theorists (MCPS is surrounded by them) are quick to claim that problems are due to malevolence and/or criminality.  Most of the time, I have found that problems are instead caused by miscalculation and incompetence.  What we just witnessed is an epic example of the latter.

First, there was managerial incompetence.  My source network, who have run MANY governmental budgets over the years, were incredulous that MCPS ever needed RIFs or furloughs despite its threats.  They point out that MCPS usually gets less money than it requests (don’t we all?) and typically manages staffing changes through retirements, resignations, lapses, vacancies, transfers and other routine personnel measures.  Did no one inside top management understand how to do this?  Apparently, they do now because that’s what happened at the end.

Second, there was political incompetence.  Lots of people inside the council building saw this as a ploy to get more money at the last minute.  But here’s the crazy part: multiple sources told me that the school board never requested new money to help with its problems.  Why on Earth would anyone launch a game of chicken and not start their car engine?  And what did the council do?  So far, nothing.  Tuesday’s council agenda included $26 million in supplemental appropriations from reserves, none of which were for MCPS.

What were they thinking?

Were they thinking anything at all?

Now let’s look at what the future holds.

1. The teachers union is furious with the school board and now openly calls them out for cowardice.  The union is trying to throw out all three incumbent school board members who are running for reelection and has already ousted one of them.  At least one of two outcomes will result: hostile incumbents survive, newcomers facing a learning curve will win or perhaps both.

2. The state’s Blueprint program presents opportunities and challenges for school districts as explained in a recent Maryland Matters article.  MCPS is using state money to hire a Blueprint coordinator in FY25.

3. The county council, which controls the majority of MCPS’s budget through local appropriations, does not trust the school board or district management.  Check out Council President Andrew Friedson’s remarks in MoCo360, in which he flays MCPS leadership.  Here is just one sample: “To suggest that there are draconian cuts that are needed … things like laying off teachers and breaking contracts is absolutely unfathomable and reflects a woeful lack of leadership, accountability and responsibility.”  Friedson is being diplomatic compared to off-the-record comments I receive, most of which are so profane that I would be banned from the Internet for printing them.  Perhaps the most common comment I get is that MCPS leaders are “ridiculous” – prefaced with a choice expletive.

4. The council has its own internal rivalries, with at least three members (Will Jawando, Kristin Mink and Laurie-Anne Sayles) seeking to cozy up to the teachers union without actually offering more money.  These rivalries will get turbocharged if a charter amendment effort to limit the county executive to two terms succeeds, thereby kicking off an open-seat executive race in two years.

5. At Tuesday’s board meeting, school board member Rebecca Smondrowski raised the prospect of seeking a supplemental appropriation from the council.  School board president Karla Silvestre threw a bit of cold water on the idea, which would require a vote of support from the board, but a broad supplemental could reignite the three-way council-board-union battle we just witnessed.

6. The county’s newest fiscal plan projects that the money available to county agencies will increase by just 0.1% in FY26, which is less than the rate of inflation.  Projections can and do change.  But if this one holds, it will renew talk of big tax hikes and stir up interest groups who want money, including but not limited to the teachers.

7. All of this awaits any new permanent or interim superintendent who is hired by the school board, an announcement that could come soon.  That person, whoever it is, will have a full and foul plate awaiting them.

And you and I will be watching.

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