By Adam Pagnucco.
First-term Congresswoman April McClain Delaney, who is defending her 6th District seat from her predecessor, former Congressman David Trone, is now claiming a 12-point lead. Does that mean she is going to win?
McClain Delaney is in a heated primary battle with Trone. Both candidates have resources, but few non-presidential politicians have ever had enough money to keep up with Trone. Back in December, McClain Delaney released an internal poll by Hart Research Associates showing her with a 17-point lead. Now her new internal poll shows a 12-point lead.
Let’s read the short polling memo she released and then I’ll follow with a comment.
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TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Hart Research Associates
DATE: March 24, 2026
RE: Recent 6th CD Democratic Primary survey shows Congresswoman April McClain Delaney maintains double-digit lead even after Trone’s heavy initial spending
Hart Research Associates conducted a survey between March 16 and 21, 2026, among 500 likely Maryland 6th CD Democratic primary voters via landline and cell phone. The survey was representative of a 6th CD Democratic primary electorate by key demographic and geographic factors and has a margin of error of ±4.5%.
Congresswoman McClain Delaney holds a double-digit lead over David Trone in the initial trial heat–49% to 37%, with 14% of voters undecided.
McClain Delaney leads in every part of the district and with every major demographic group. Our survey shows that the Congresswoman has maintained her advantage despite Trone’s heavy media expenditures, which includes 10 districtwide mailings, extensive cable television and digital, and $1,400,00 in DC broadcast television.
In fact, among the voters who are POSITIVE toward both candidates (which is nearly 80% of the entire electorate), McClain Delaney leads by a similar 50% to 37% margin, which suggests there is little room for Trone to increase his support in a race with two well-known (both candidates have 88% name recognition) and well-regarded candidates.
In summary, April McClain Delaney has maintained a solid lead in the trial heat in the midst of David Trone’s initial and largely positive paid media expenditure (including DC broadcast). Granted, the McClain Delaney campaign has communicated with voters, albeit at a lower level, but she has managed to INCREASE her favorables. We believe that Congresswoman McClain Delaney wins this race with the status quo (positive vs positive) and that the only realistic path to victory for Mr. Trone over a well-liked Democratic incumbent is a harshly negative, divisive, and expensive campaign.
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My take:
Let’s start with the pollster: Hart. This is the same firm that worked on David Blair’s 2022 county executive race (on which I also worked). I have previously written about how Hart’s polls essentially nailed the results of that race. That doesn’t mean that Hart is always right, but they are a long-time respected polling firm.
Trone, in contrast, has been publicizing the results of a third-party poll that found him with a 21-point lead. I have not seen any polling memo laying out its results, but the poll has attracted substantial online criticism for its allegedly low sample size (154 respondents) and the pollster’s lack of track record. I don’t know what to make of it, but I am skeptical that it equates to Hart’s work.
Let’s return to McClain Delaney’s poll. I’m suspicious of horse race results in early polls. But it’s no longer early in the 6th District race, as both candidates have begun mail, TV and social media. That’s when numbers start to move.
You can look at this in one of two ways. Back in December, McClain Delaney claimed a 17-point lead. Now it’s 12 points. The margins of error in these polls were 4-5 points and they came from the same pollster (Hart). Because the movement – such as it is – falls within the margin of error, it’s tempting to dismiss it as insignificant.
But the direction of movement is not what McClain Delaney might hope for. And Trone still has tens of millions of dollars to dump into the race. Hart’s take is this: “We believe that Congresswoman McClain Delaney wins this race with the status quo (positive vs positive) and that the only realistic path to victory for Mr. Trone over a well-liked Democratic incumbent is a harshly negative, divisive, and expensive campaign.” If Trone’s internal polling tracks Hart, he will perceive the same thing.
That means whoever wins, this primary is headed for a huge and brutal finish.