By Adam Pagnucco.
This is the most common question I have been asked over the last several months.
“Who do you think is going to win?
I replied, “I don’t know. You tell me!” And then I got a mouthful
Well, mouthfuls don’t count for much around here because this site features mostly written content. So once again, I organized my sources and asked them: who is going to win? I was particularly curious about races with open seats, such as county executive, council at-large and Council Districts 1 and 3 as well as a few contested races with incumbents (like Congressional District 6 and sheriff). I also asked about a few state legislative races. And yeah, I got some mouthfuls and some decent writing too. Some of my sources should really be bloggers!
Here is a basic tally of my respondents.
Total voters: 65
Elected officials: 13
Former elected officials: 11
Current county government officials and employees: 12
Current state government officials and employees: 6
Former county government officials and employees: 13
In this series, I will report the tallies by my sources for each race and reprint a few of their off-the-record comments. (All sources were promised confidentiality.) Let’s emphasize that there is nothing scientific about any of this and I bet they will get a few races wrong. But my sources are the intelligentsia of county politics. Many of them have been around longer than me (they still call me the new guy!) and are plugged into networks that exceed mine. When they reach a consensus on a race, they reflect the views of the insider class of MoCo politics.
Take that for what it’s worth, folks!
Now let’s start with a few state legislative races.
Senate District 39
All sources who voted (28 of them) picked incumbent Nancy King to win. Challenger Amar Mukunda received this nice comment: “Her opponent Amar Mukunda is talented, bright, and articulate and even if he loses, he has a bright future in MoCo.”
House District 14
All 23 sources who voted picked the team of incumbents Anne Kaiser and Bernice Mireku-North along with Matt Post.
House District 17
Every one of the 24 sources who voted picked incumbents Julie Palakovich Carr, Ryan Spiegel and Joe Vogel to win.
House District 18
26 sources picked the incumbents (Aaron Kaufman, Emily Shetty and Jared Solomon) to win. Two thought challenger Kate Stein would break through.
House District 16
Here is where it starts to get complicated. Three-term Delegate Marc Korman, who chairs the House Environment and Transportation Committee and writes the best book and movie reviews on Facebook, is regarded as a lock for reelection. Running for the other two seats are Delegates Sarah Wolek and Teresa Woorman, each of whom was appointed during this term, and challenger Tazeen Ahmad. Here are a few comments from sources.
*****
Tough call. I think Ahmad will beat Woorman.
Korman, Woorman, Ahmad. This one is certainly tricky and will be close but Ahmad has maybe done enough to break through. Of Woorman and Wolek, it just seems as if Woorman has more energy and juice.
It’s very curious that Korman and Love did not team with Woorman or Wolek. I wonder why. I’m going with Korman, Ahmad, and Wolek as the candidates.
Korman! For all her glitz, I don’t think Tazeen Ahmad will unseat unelected incumbents Wolek and Woorman. (Maryland needs real legislative-vacancy special elections, not a weak kludge mid-term retention vote.)
Everyone is talking about the county exec race and council. In fact, this is almost certainly the hardest race to pick in the county. Woorman is shockingly weak, but the Speaker may drag her over the line. But my money is on Tazeen Ahmad in a squeaker. Korman and Wolek return easily.
Korman wins easily. Love/Korman slating without the “appointment incumbents” – Wolek and Woorman – basically told those two “show us.” Wolek has by raising money effectively and passing effective legislation. Woorman has not. For a D16 Delegate Woorman’s fundraising has been minimal at best. Former Woman’s Democratic Club of Montgomery County President and non-profit professional Tazeen Ahmad wins the third seat. Ahmad has the most significant individual endorsements from D16 residents and Ike’s support.
With the support of many and frustration with MCDCC coronations, Tazeen Ahmad will be joining delegates Korman and Wolek in Annapolis. I applaud Delegate Korman and Senator Sara Love for not endorsing anyone on their slate and letting the voters decide. District 16 is the poster child for the need to get rid of the Democratic Central Committee’s ability to fill vacancies for Annapolis and to allow voters to pick replacements.
I’m supporting Ahmad… but I think Woorman will win. Incumbency has its privileges.
*****
Final source tally
Korman: 26 votes (unanimous)
Wolek: 22 votes
Ahmad: 17 votes
Woorman: 9 votes
House District 19
Almost all of my sources believe incumbents Charlotte Crutchfield and Vaughn Stewart, who are running as a team with Senator Ben Kramer, will be reelected. After them, there is no consensus. Sunil Dasgupta (7 votes) and Christa Tichy (6 votes) got the most support, but since only 18 people voted, it’s a crapshoot.
House District 39
This is the most contentious state legislative race in the county. Senator Nancy King is teaming up with Delegates Lesley Lopez and Greg Wims and Gaithersburg City Council Member Rob Wu to take out Delegate Gabe Acevero. However, Acevero has already survived one attempt by King to defeat him. Here are a few comments from sources.
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I think the slate knocks out Acevero.
Wu or Wims take the final seat, with Acevero and Lopez comfortably ahead.
I think Wu will win, the question is whether Acevero beats out one of the other incumbents.
Acevero wins, Wu doesn’t.
I think this is the year Acevero gets ousted. Incumbents plus Wu. Definitely will be close.
Robert Wu was impressive in 2022 when he ran for Council. His efforts this time have been genuinely head-scratching. Everything from over-active social media commentary to not knowing if his mailers have a union printing logo on them. Acevero is not a good state representative but it would not surprise me if he pulls this out due to his standing support, campaign experience, and name recognition.
Lopez, Wims, Wu. Maybe this is wishful thinking but seems like Rob Wu’s time on the Gaithersburg City Council could give him the name recognition it will take to knock off Acevero. Of course, that assumes Rob doesn’t phone it in like he did against Sidney Katz in 2022.
Incumbents win – Acevero/Lopez/Wims – too much $$ and individual and organizational support.
My money is on Rob Wu. He is smart, personable, knows his way around campaigns and door knocks like nobody’s business.
The rift will continue, and Delegate Gabe Acevero will likely remain, much to the chagrin of his colleagues, in his seat in Annapolis representing District 17. The slate of King, Lopez and Wims chose Robert Wu, a Gaithersburg Council Member to be their partner to hopefully defeat Acevero.
All D39 incumbents. I really really like Rob Wu… and I hope he wins… but I think there’s too much of a hurdle for him to jump to win.
*****
Final source tally
Lopez: 23 votes
Wims: 19 votes
Acevero: 16 votes
Wu: 14 votes
Next: Two races with incumbents.