By Adam Pagnucco.
Former MCPS teacher Brenda Diaz, who left the school district after refusing to wear a mask during the pandemic, is a marked woman in her second race for the school board. (She lost in the District 2 general election two years ago.)
A Super PAC financed in part by the teachers union has mobilized to oppose her. The county Democratic Party, which typically avoids non-partisan races, has taken the unusual step of condemning her. Most progressive activists who pay attention to the school board have rallied behind her opponent, Omar Lazo, who is backed by the teachers union. Diaz is supported by the county Republican Party, which is not the greatest thing in a county where nearly 60% of the voters are Democrats. For her part, Diaz seems to revel in the attention of her enemies, openly branding the school board as a rubber stamp for the teachers union.
The Montgomery County GOP advocates for Diaz on their website.
So with the Democrats and the teachers out to stop her, Diaz is certain to lose – right? Well, not so fast. She has a chance to win because of a fact that has nothing to do with masks, political parties or unions.
Diaz is a woman running against a man for a school board seat. That matters – and maybe a lot.
The last time a male candidate defeated a female candidate in a school board general election was in 2012, when incumbent Chris Barclay held off challenger Annita Seckinger for the District 4 seat. Since then, here is what has happened.
Female candidate defeats female: 12 times
Female candidate defeats male: 7 times
Male candidate defeats male: 1 time
Female candidate unopposed: 1 time
Male candidate defeats female: 0 times
That’s right, folks: the only time a male school board candidate has won an election since 2012 was against another man. (It happened in 2014, when incumbent Mike Durso defeated Larry Edmonds for the District 5 seat.)
In the seven general elections in which a female candidate defeated a man, the average tally was 62% for the winner and 37% for the loser. The defeated men included appointed incumbent Scott Joftus, who lost the 2022 District 3 election to Julie Yang by 30 points, and incumbent Phil Kauffman, who lost the 2016 at-large election to Jeanette Dixon by 10 points despite having endorsements from both the teachers union and the Washington Post. Sunil Dasgupta, who ran for an at-large seat in 2020, had the Apple Ballot but still lost to the Washington Post-supported Lynne Harris.
Look folks, I’m not going to speculate on why women have been more successful than men in these elections for more than a decade. The fact that they are, and that solid candidates with the Apple like Kauffman and Dasgupta have gone down, is a material fact. The phenomenon is probably assisted by the low-information nature of these races, which is due in part to the near-absence of candidate campaign budgets. An awful lot of voters know nothing about these candidates other than their gender. And for some of them, that might be enough.
So the teachers and the county Democratic Party have their work cut out for them. Yes, they could break this historical pattern and stop Diaz from being elected. But they are probably going to have to work at it to succeed.