By Adam Pagnucco.
According to new data released by the U.S. Census Bureau, Montgomery County has lost population two years in a row. That has not happened in a very long time.
The Census Bureau regularly releases estimates of county population totals and components of change. Its most recent estimates apply to July 1 of 2020, 2021 and 2022. The table for counties in Maryland (along with Baltimore City) appears below.
The Census Bureau estimates that MoCo lost 9,533 people between April 1, 2020 and July 1, 2022. That’s 0.9% of the county’s population. In terms of absolute numbers, only Prince George’s County (-20,223) and Baltimore City (-15,762) lost more people. In percentage terms, four jurisdictions – Baltimore City (-2.7%), Prince George’s County (-2.1%), Allegany County (-1.2%) and Baltimore County (-1.0%) – had bigger losses than MoCo.
Census also breaks down components of population change. Here’s what they look like for MoCo over the 4/1/20 to 7/1/22 period.
Births: +26,176
Deaths: -17,212
Net International Migration: +11,066
Net Domestic Migration: -30,036
Could Not be Attributed: +473
Net Change: -9,533
What this means is that residents are disproportionately moving out to other parts of the United States. Without positive net international migration, we would have had a bigger loss.
For purposes of comparison, the chart below shows the percentage change in population for large jurisdictions in our region.
We are not alone. Many large jurisdictions in the region have lost residents. This is not good news for us because these are our trading partners. Their residents work here, our residents work there and people cross jurisdictional lines to engage in economic activity every day. It’s in our own self-interest to not only have a strong domestic economy but to have lots of economic strength in our neighbors too.
Historically, population loss is unusual for our county. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has an annual population series for counties ranging from 1969 to 2021. According to them, we had one year of population loss in that whole period – 1979, in which we lost 2,562 people. We grew every year since, often by 10,000 or more people annually, until we had a loss in 2021. Now it’s two consecutive years of losses.
If this turns into a trend, it will have huge impacts on our quality of life, our government and our economy.