By Adam Pagnucco.

Earlier today, I posted an analysis of the results for school board and the term limits ballot question that asked whether mail could swing the apparent outcomes in those races.  My conclusion was almost certainly not in the school board races and it was mathematically impossible for term limits.  Let’s discuss a much closer race now: the fiercely contested general election in Congressional District 6.

The race pits Democrat April McClain Delaney against Republican Neil Parrott.  The district contains three red counties (Allegany, Garrett and Washington), part of one blue county (Montgomery) and a purple county that has been leaning blue in recent years (Frederick).  Since the district was restructured in the last cycle, Frederick now casts about 40% of its votes followed by MoCo at more than a quarter.

At this writing, Delaney has a 315-vote lead.  But that margin varies sharply by election mode.  So far, here is the breakdown.

Early votes: Delaney 47%, Parrott 52%.  Parrott has a margin of 5,953 votes.

Election day votes: Delaney 46%, Parrott 54%.  Parrott has a margin of 12,984 votes.

Mail votes (so far): Delaney 72%, Parrott 28%.  Delaney has a margin of 19,252 votes.

It’s razor tight, but look at these differences!  This reinforces the fact that Democrats, at least currently, favor mail voting more than Republicans.

Election day and early votes are nearly all counted.  What remains are more mail votes and provisional votes.  Let’s discuss mail first.

At this writing, CD6 voters have been sent 102,984 mail ballots, of which 44,636 have been counted.  That leaves a potential number of 58,348 mail ballots to be counted.  But the number of them that will actually affect this race is smaller.  Why?

First, there is undervoting – the practice of casting a ballot but not voting for all the races on it.  That’s a big factor in this year’s school board race, as it is in every school board race.  As it turns out, that’s not a big deal in CD6.  In the district’s last four general elections (2016-2022), 97% of CD6 voters voted in the U.S. House race.

A bigger factor is that not all mail ballots sent to voters get returned and counted.  In the last four general elections, the district has seen an average of 83% of its mail ballots get counted.  That statistic does not vary much between the district’s counties, with tiny Garrett County doing best (at 87%) and Frederick and MoCo doing worst (at 83% each).  This will impact any projection significantly overall but only differentiate between the counties a little bit.

When undervoting and return rates are applied to the outstanding mail ballots, that total number outstanding of 58,348 probably goes down into the neighborhood of the low 40,000s in terms of the actual remaining number of mail votes to be cast in the congressional race.  That could absolutely sway a margin of 315 votes either way.

But now let’s look at the distribution of these mail ballots.  55% of the mail ballots sent to CD6 voters went to Democrats.  57% of the mail ballots returned to the boards of elections were from Democrats.  57% of the mail ballots actually counted were from Democrats.  And 54% of the mail ballots outstanding are from Democrats.  This says nothing about mail ballots from unaffiliated voters that might go to Delaney – and that number, whatever it is, is not zero.

Want more?  40% of the mail ballots sent and 35% of those counted so far are from Frederick County, which has so far given Delaney a two-point edge.  35% of the mail ballots sent and 31% of those counted so far come from MoCo, which has so far given Delaney a 38-point edge.

So these mail ballots are disproportionately from Democrats and from jurisdictions that are voting for Delaney.

At this moment, Delaney has a 72%-28% edge over Parrott in the mail ballots counted.  By my rough math, Parrott would need to win 50.4% of the mail ballots outstanding to pull ahead of Delaney.  Why would the second batch of mail ballots be so different from the first?  I don’t see it.  The more likely outcome is that Delaney pads her margin as more mail votes come in.

What about provisional ballots?  In the 2022 general election, the first under the district’s new lines, 3.1% of the district’s total votes came from provisional ballots.  That’s enough to affect a tight race.  But think about this: if Delaney maintains her 72%-28% edge over Parrott in the remaining mail ballots to be counted, she would own a 5.1% edge on Parrott overall.  Provisional ballots, even if they all went to Parrott, would be unlikely to save him.

In looking at this race, I am reminded of two posts I wrote about the 2022 CD6 general election between Parrott and incumbent Democrat David Trone.  In my first post, Parrott had a 2.3% lead over Trone two days after the polls closed.  At that time, I looked at the distribution of mail ballots and wrote, “It’s way too early to call this race and I will provide periodic updates.  But at this moment, based on mathematics alone, I would rather be in the position of Team Trone than Team Parrott.”  In my second post, I saw Trone maintaining his edge in additional mail ballots and wrote, “Trone looks like he will be returning to the Capitol.”

The ultimate outcome was a victory by Trone over Parrott of 9.6 points, which was quite a shift from Parrott’s initial lead of 2.3 points.  That’s what happens when voting modes differ so dramatically in use between different groups of voters.

This race feels like 2022.  Advantage Delaney.