By Adam Pagnucco.
Yesterday, I wrote about mail ballot counting in the Congressional District 6 race pitting incumbent Democrat David Trone against Republican Delegate Neil Parrott. At that time, Parrott had a lead of 4,547 votes but few mail ballots had been counted. I predicted that Trone had a great chance of pulling ahead as more mail ballots came in.
Well, that prediction looks like it will come true. According to the State Board of Elections website, Parrott’s lead is now 1,682 votes. Here is a summary of what happened.
1. The county boards of elections counted an additional 7,104 mail ballots. Trone won 4,980 of them, Parrott won 2,115 and write-ins received 9 votes. That means Trone’s win rate was 75% of the first batch of mail ballots and 70% of the second batch.
2. In my first cut, I estimated that Trone needed to win between 54% and 57% of the outstanding mail ballots (the total of which is increasing but not yet fully known). Trone’s second batch win rate of 70% is far above his needed mail ballot win rate overall.
3. Trone’s win rates by county are pretty astounding considering their partisan nature. At this point, his mail ballot win rates are 57% in Garrett County, 63% in Allegany County, 69% in Washington County, 78% in Frederick County, 86% in Montgomery County and 73% overall. Let’s remember that Garrett, Allegany and Washington counties are three of the most heavily Republican jurisdictions in the state. Let’s also recall that 60% of the mail ballots requested in Congressional District 6 belong to Democrats. This is yet more evidence of how Democrats have embraced mail voting, and not just in Maryland.
Because of Trone’s new pop yesterday, I am lowering the percentage of remaining mail ballots he needs to win to 52-53%. Given that his mail ballot win rate is currently 73%, he can easily pull that off.
Trone may have more data than appears on the state’s website because he is already declaring victory on Twitter. Regardless, the trends are pointing his way. Trone looks like he will be returning to the Capitol.
