By Adam Pagnucco.
Last Thursday, I looked at three close races on election night. In the county executive race, Council Member Will Jawando led Council Member Andrew Friedson by 6,549 votes (7.3 points). In the Council District 3 race, Gaithersburg Mayor Jud Ashman led Rockville City Council Member Izola Shaw by 182 votes (1.7 points). And in the council at-large race, former Jawando staffer Fatmata Barrie led Board of Education Member Karla Silvestre by 840 votes (0.3 points). In all three races, mail and provisional ballots were set to determine the outcome.
My methodology in projecting winners, refined when I was working for 2022 county executive candidate David Blair, was to project the number of remaining mail and provisional ballots and estimate the shares of those ballots the trailing candidate needed to pull ahead. I assumed that provisional ballots would look like in-person ballots, so mail was the remaining variable. As of the count on Saturday, June 27, let’s see if the trailing candidates have kept on pace for a comeback.
County Executive
As of election night, Friedson was winning mail ballots over Jawando by 1,400, a 39-31% spread. My projection was that Friedson needed to win remaining mail ballots by a 43-27% spread to pull ahead. How has he done?
Since that time, 21,405 additional mail ballots have been counted. Friedson received 7,874 of them and Jawando received 7,862, a virtual draw. Friedson had two favorable counts on June 25 which were then wiped out on June 27. Jawando’s lead stands at 6,650 as of this writing, slightly larger than on election night, with a majority of mail ballots counted and provisionals likely not numerous enough to compensate. Friedson has conceded and Jawando looks like a sure winner.
Council District 3
As of election night, Ashman was winning mail ballots over Shaw by 408, a 50-35% spread. My projection was that Shaw needed to win remaining mail ballots by a 44-42% spread to pull ahead. (Shaw needed less of a spread than Friedson because she had a big lead in election day votes.) How has she done?
Since that time, 3,206 additional mail ballots have been counted. Ashman received 1,594 of them (50%) and Shaw received 1,352 of them (42%). Shaw’s best day was on Saturday, when she received 7 more mail votes than Ashman. Still, Ashman’s current lead of 424 votes is more than double his election night lead of 182 votes and most mail ballots have likely been counted. Shaw needs a big turnaround in remaining mail and provisional ballots or Ashman is going to win by single digits.
Council At-Large
As of election night, Barrie had an 840 vote lead overall but Silvestre was leading in mail ballots by 798 votes. Silvestre’s percentage point lead over Barrie in mail was 9.9-8.5%. Josie Caballero was not far behind. My projection was that Barrie could trail Silvestre by 9.4-8.9% in mail and still win because of her lead in election day votes. How has she done?
Since that time, 74,230 mail votes have been counted. Barrie has received 6,900 of them, or 9.3%. That’s slightly better than what she needed in my projection. However, Silvestre has received 8,634 of them, or 11.6%. That’s far better than what Silvestre needed to catch up. Barrie’s 840 vote lead on election night has turned into an 897 vote lead for Silvestre as of this writing because of the latter’s superior performance on mail. With most mail votes counted, I would rather be Silvestre than Barrie. Additionally, since Caballero is now 3,982 votes behind Barrie and 4,879 votes behind Silvestre, Caballero appears unlikely to break through. Provisional ballots await.
The county Board of Elections is scheduled to hold its next canvass on Wednesday. While other dates are available, the board states, “Please note that dates are subject to change as the canvass schedule is highly dependent on the number of returned mail-in ballots. The below canvass schedule will be updated as warranted.”