Guest column by Adam Van Grack, Rockville City Councilmember.
Montgomery County became one of the nation’s most successful communities because previous leaders planned ahead. Our County’s past leaders (such as Doug Duncan, Ike Leggett, Patricia O’Neill, and Nancy Floreen) built schools before overcrowding became a crisis, aligned infrastructure with growth, and welcomed responsible development that strengthened our economy.
Today, however, too many major County decisions are being made with a much shorter temporal perspective. The current debate over whether to close (or constructively close through “relocation”) Wootton High School illustrates the broader problem. The concern is policies driven by short-term data while ignoring the long-term planning that shapes where and how Montgomery County is actually growing. The same short-term mindset is also evident in the County’s rent stabilization policy. In both cases, decisions that appear responsive today risk creating serious problems tomorrow.
School planning must consider municipal planning and approved growth
Montgomery County does not plan growth randomly. The County and its municipalities adopt master plans, zoning approvals, and development entitlements in specific areas years before construction begins.
For examples, cities like Rockville and Gaithersburg have adopted long-range plans that encourage housing growth near transit, employment centers, and mixed-use districts. Rockville’s 2040 Master Plan and similar formally-planned developments around the Great Seneca Science Corridor and Crown Farm anticipate continued residential growth in the Rockville/Gaithersburg corridor. These plans are not speculative. They represent legally-approved development frameworks guiding where future residents will live.
Montgomery County Public Schools itself acknowledges that land-use planning should inform school infrastructure planning. In its Capital Improvements Program materials, MCPS specifically states that it “monitors the implementation of land use plans once they are approved.” That statement reflects the following important truth: When governments approve housing growth, students eventually follow.
However, as clarified on March 3rd during the Board of Education’s Worksession, when evaluating long-term school capacity (including the proposal to close/“relocate” Wootton High School), MCPS enrollment projections only rely on developments that have “approved site plans.” In other words, all earlier phases of approved development are completely excluded from MCPS’s enrollment modeling. While I completely understand that planned and pre-site-plan approved development should not hold the same weight for enrollment estimation as approved site plans, to complete exclude such information in the modeling, without any consideration at all, is concerning and contrary to MCPS’s own Capital Improvements Program monitoring directive.
This data-limited approach ignores a large portion of Montgomery County’s (and municipalities’) already-approved growth pipeline (or lack thereof). While MCPS addressed concerns of its having “really bad estimates” (as stated by Senator Cheryl Kagan recently) by clarifying that MCPS is properly using all data that it intends to rely upon, one question remains:
Is MCPS relying on the most appropriate data or is MCPS ignoring valuable information that can be used to best guide future planning?
The Maryland Building Industry Association as well as the City of Rockville have specifically warned MCPS leadership that a decision to close (aka “relocate”) Wootton High School fails to account for approved development and long-term planning data in the Rockville/Gaithersburg corridor. When an organization that studies statewide housing growth warns that school planning assumptions are incomplete, that warning deserves serious attention.
If MCPS truly monitors approved land-use plans and all approved development, then those realities must inform (to some degree) long-term school capacity decisions. Otherwise, the County risks repeating the same cycle of overcrowding, emergency construction, and expensive corrections that have defined school planning for the past few decades. Yet today, MCPS risks repeating the same pattern. As is often said, those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.
Closing (aka permanently “relocating”) a comprehensive, successful high school while ignoring approved development and growth plans already adopted by local governments in that school’s region is not careful planning. Rather, such a rash decision is planning for the present while pretending the future will never arrive.
Housing policy must encourage future supply
A similar short-term approach exists regarding Montgomery County’s rent stabilization law. This law was adopted with the laudable goal to protect current tenants from sudden rent increases. However, this specific policy only assists those current tenants in their current units; it unfortunately harms everyone else. Housing policy must also consider how regulations affect the long-term production of housing and long-term rental prices overall.
Housing supply directly depends on investment. Developers and lenders choose where to build based on long-term financial viability. As nationwide data regularly shows, residential growth slows considerably when rent growth is legally capped.
Recent data suggests this dynamic is already affecting Montgomery County. According to an analysis of county permitting data from Montgomery Perspective, multifamily housing permits have fallen sharply after adoption of rent stabilization: a 96% drop. That is not a minor slowdown; it is a collapse in new housing approvals. Fewer housing permits today mean fewer places for people to live tomorrow. Fewer available homes tomorrow also mean higher rents for future residents.
Importantly, the slowdown also affects the County’s finances, including the very funds needed by MCPS. New housing generates tax revenue that help fund infrastructure such as schools and transportation. When development slows, those revenue streams also shrink.
This reality is one reason why Rockville and Gaithersburg have chosen not to adopt the County’s rent control policies. Rockville and Gaithersburg have concluded that encouraging housing production and maintaining predictable regulatory environments are more responsible paths toward long-term affordability, lower rental prices overall, tax revenue, and economic growth.
Looking ahead
Ironically, Rockville and Gaithersburg (the two jurisdictions in Montgomery County which are most encouraging future development in their policies) are the very jurisdictions slated for capacity harm by MCPS ignoring future growth realities through MCPS’s attempt to close (aka “relocate”) Wootton High School and permanently prevent Crown High School from fully serving the students in Gaithersburg who were intended to attend Crown.
Policies that discourage construction or ignore localized development may provide short-term political satisfaction, but they make long-term challenges worse. Montgomery County must, once again, start planning decades ahead. School capacity planning, housing policy, infrastructure investment, and economic development are not separate issues. They are all part of the same long-term planning framework. Policies that ignore planned growth, ignore separate municipal policies, or discourage investment provide conflicting and concerning results: (1) overcrowded schools in certain areas, (2) rising housing and rental costs, and (3) expensive future corrections.
Montgomery County’s success was built by leaders willing to plan decades ahead. As voters prepare to choose the County’s leadership this year, one question deserves careful consideration: Do our elected leaders support policies that plan for the County’s future or propose policies that ignore what comes next? The answer to that question will shape our community for decades.