By Adam Pagnucco.
Part One described the methodology of this series, which is hampered by the quality problems in data published by the State Board of Elections (SBE). Part Two covered receipts received by council candidates. Part Three looked at in-county contributions. Part Four examined cash balance. Now let’s look at the council at-large candidates more closely.
First, let’s examine a key stat, especially for publicly financed candidates (which included the entire at-large field): unique in-county contributors. Candidates in public financing need in-county contributors to get matching funds, and to be financially competitive, they need a lot of them. In-county contributors are also important because they are a natural source of volunteers. Along with money and endorsements, they are the oxygen every campaign needs.
The chart below shows unique in-county contributors for candidates running at-large (in green), in District 1 (in red) and in District 3 (in blue).
Scott Goldberg is once again the leader, but as of January 14, he was not blowing away the rest of his field on this metric. That said, he is the clear favorite to be the fundraising leader by the end of this campaign.
Board of Education Member Julie Yang has posted an amazing performance. I will discuss her a bit in the next post in this series.
Now let’s examine a few key stats and form impressions of some of the council at-large members. For definitions of regions and towns see here. Percentages reported apply to volume of in-county contributions.
Scott Goldberg
Receipts: $257,572 (First)
Cash balance: $225,493 (First)
Unique in-county contributors: 582 (First)
Certified for matching funds: Yes
In-County Contributions by Region
Democratic Crescent: 44%
Rest of County: 37
Upcounty: 19
Top Five Towns
Bethesda: 19%
Silver Spring Downtown: 13
Rockville: 13
Potomac: 12
Gaithersburg: 7
What I like:
Geographic diversity and sheer volume. Goldberg was a good fundraiser in 2022 but he is even better now.
What I don’t like:
Goldberg is a substitute teacher at MCPS but still did not get the Apple Ballot. I would like to see him pick up more endorsements before picking him as a sure bet to win.
The bottom line:
Goldberg is a comeback kid, the kind of candidate who runs credibly but loses and then comes back stronger next time. He is doing a good job on the kinds of things he can control, which is the most you can ask from any candidate.
Jeremiah Pope
Receipts: $64,624 (Second)
Cash balance: $48,690 (Second)
Unique in-county contributors: 505 (Second)
Certified for matching funds: Yes, after the January report
In-County Contributions by Region
Democratic Crescent: 23%
Rest of County: 61
Upcounty: 15
Top Five Towns
Silver Spring East County: 22%
Glenmont/Norbeck: 17
Silver Spring Downtown: 12
Wheaton: 8
Bethesda: 7
What I like:
Like Goldberg, Pope is a comeback kid. He is aided by lots of support coming from areas with concentrations of Black Democrats, like East County. That’s a nice base to have, and if Pope can wrap it up, he can finish strong.
What I don’t like:
Where are the institutional endorsements? Pope’s top endorsement last time came from the Washington Post, but who knows what the paper will do this year (and how many people will care). That said, having Ike Leggett’s support is a plus and Pope should spend money to get the word out.
The bottom line:
I’d like to see more from him, but Pope is definitely competitive.
Josie Caballero
Receipts: $40,748 (Third)
Cash balance: $5,096 (Eleventh)
Unique in-county contributors: 253 (Seventh)
Certified for matching funds: Applied after the January report
In-County Contributions by Region
Democratic Crescent: 51%
Rest of County: 33
Upcounty: 16
Top Five Towns
Silver Spring Downtown: 18%
Bethesda: 18
Rockville: 17
Gaithersburg: 9
Chevy Chase: 6
What I like:
She has the Apple Ballot.
What I don’t like:
Here’s a list. 1. As of January 14, she raised about double the money from non-county residents than she did from in-county residents, a terrible data point for someone in public financing. 2. In her January report, Caballero raised $39k and spent $34k, leaving her with just $5,096 and not close to qualifying for matching funds. That’s a horrendous cash management performance reminiscent of Brandy Brooks’s doomed 2022 council at-large campaign. 3. She may have a problem with Jewish voters. More on that soon.
The bottom line:
She needs to catch up to her opponents, build up a cash balance for mail and fix her issues with Jewish Democrats. Easy, right?
Laurie-Anne Sayles
Receipts: $37,310 (Fourth)
Cash balance: $27,165 (Third)
Unique in-county contributors: 267 (Sixth)
Certified for matching funds: Applied in January report
In-County Contributions by Region
Democratic Crescent: 24%
Rest of County: 45
Upcounty: 32
Top Five Towns
Gaithersburg: 17%
Rockville: 15
Silver Spring Downtown: 11
Potomac: 10
Bethesda: 7
What I like:
Sayles is the only incumbent in the race and has a bunch of endorsements (including the Apple Ballot). She will probably get a whole lot of other endorsements too because she has generally avoided offending key interest groups.
What I don’t like:
The last time there was only one incumbent in a council at-large race was in 2018, when Hans Riemer clobbered the rest of the field. Sayles should be posting better stats than third, fourth and sixth as listed above.
The bottom line:
It’s hard to imagine the only incumbent in the race not getting one of the four available at-large seats.
Marc Elrich
Receipts: $35,381 (Fifth)
Cash balance: $20,683 (Fifth)
Unique in-county contributors: 331 (Third)
Certified for matching funds: Applied in January report
In-County Contributions by Region
Democratic Crescent: 62%
Rest of County: 26
Upcounty: 12
Top Five Towns
Silver Spring Downtown: 24%
Takoma Park: 16
Chevy Chase: 9
Potomac: 8
Bethesda: 8
The bottom line:
I’m going to throw out the likes and dislikes here because I have seen this in every election with Elrich as a candidate. Here’s the formula. 1. He doesn’t raise a lot of money. 2. What he does raise comes disproportionately from Takoma Park and Downtown Silver Spring. 3. It never matters because his three-headed base of unions, progressives and development opponents gets him over the finish line. Throw in the fact that Elrich’s name recognition is FAR superior to anyone else in the field and he should be ranting against evil developers from the council dais once again next year.
Fatmata Barrie
Receipts: $34,380 (Sixth)
Cash balance: $22,076 (Fourth)
Unique in-county contributors: 298 (Fifth)
Certified for matching funds: Yes, after the January report
In-County Contributions by Region
Democratic Crescent: 20%
Rest of County: 41
Upcounty: 39
Top Five Towns
Germantown: 16%
Silver Spring East County: 14
Potomac: 11
Gaithersburg: 11
Silver Spring Downtown: 9
What I like:
The Apple Ballot is a plus. So is her fundraising from Upcounty and East County, stats in which she is one of the leaders in this field.
What I don’t like:
She needs more game in the Democratic Crescent, which plays an outsized role in county elections.
The bottom line:
Barrie is a player primarily because of the Apple Ballot. Her fundraising is just OK.
Karla Silvestre
Receipts: $28,334 (Seventh)
Cash balance: $19,594 (Sixth)
Unique in-county contributors: 299 (Fourth)
Certified for matching funds: Yes, after the January report
In-County Contributions by Region
Democratic Crescent: 42%
Rest of County: 29
Upcounty: 29
Top Five Towns
Silver Spring Downtown: 16%
Rockville: 11
Bethesda: 9
Olney: 9
Chevy Chase: 8
What I like:
Downtown Silver Spring, Rockville, Bethesda and Chevy Chase are good places to raise money and get votes.
What I don’t like:
She carries all the baggage of MCPS’s problems without the asset of the Apple Ballot.
The bottom line:
Silvestre has done enough to stay in the mix. That’s all I can say for now.
Other Candidates
I need to see more from the other at-large candidates to comment. Let’s revisit them in April.
The Bottom Line on This Race So Far
The council at-large race has one incumbent (Sayles), one quasi-incumbent (Elrich) and one fundraising king (Goldberg). I could make a case for any of these three, and maybe all three, to get elected at the moment. Will one of these folks blow themselves up (like Brandy Brooks)? Will one or more of the other candidates make a late surge? And what will the outside groups do? We will know by June.