By Adam Pagnucco.
Council Member Andrew Friedson, who is running for county executive, has released an internal poll showing that he has gained support and now leads the race.
Following is his campaign memo. I’ll have a reaction afterwards.
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To: Friends and Supporters
From: John Block, Campaign Manager
Date: June 1, 2026
Re: New Polling with a New Leader!
We’re three weeks out from the June 23rd primary and we have brand new polling on the state of the race as we enter the final phase of this campaign.
Our newest countywide tracking poll, conducted May 26 to 28 by Global Strategy Group, with 400 likely Democratic Primary voters, and a margin of error of +/- 4.9%, reveals that the fundamental dynamic of this race has shifted. Andrew Friedson has broken away from the pack and earned a clear lead.
Our polling confirms that our early communication is working. We have more than doubled Andrew’s support since February after just three weeks on television. Here are the key takeaways from the latest data:
- Andrew Friedson has officially taken the lead. Andrew has surged into first place since our initial February poll while his opponents have stalled. Andrew stands at 25% (a 13-point jump since February), while Will Jawando has held support at 19% and Evan Glass remains flat at 18%, where he has been stuck for months.
- Andrew remains the candidate with the highest ceiling. Even as the new frontrunner, Andrew still has the most room to grow. He has seen the most dramatic growth in personal favorability in the field (now 36% favorable / 11% unfavorable) but remains the least known of the big three.
- When we communicate, we win. As voters learn more about Andrew, they are overwhelmingly supporting his candidacy. Our strategy to communicate with voters with early mail, digital, and TV ads has proven decisive. Among those voters who have been exposed to our messaging, Andrew more than doubles the field: leading with 44% support to Jawando’s 21% and Glass’s 18%.
Conclusion: Andrew has put himself in a strong position to win this race by earning a broad coalition of support, building an army of hundreds of grassroots volunteers, and communicating directly with voters. Andrew’s message of leading the fight against constant tax hikes and working to make Montgomery County a more affordable place is resonating, while his opponents are struggling to defend their record of repeatedly voting for higher taxes. We enter the final stage of the campaign on strong footing and ready to communicate the clear contrast in this race: there are three good Democrats in the race, but only Andrew will make Montgomery County more affordable.
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My take:
The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.9%. That means Friedson, Jawando and Glass are all within the margin of error and statistically tied. Moreover, 38% of the sample is undecided. This race is far from over.
However, the trend claimed by the memo is interesting. Friedson’s campaign says that Jawando and Glass have not changed their support levels while Friedson has moved up by 13 points. That tracks Friedson’s extraordinary surge in voter communications since March as I wrote this morning.
Here’s what remains to happen. Apple Ballots will be passed out. The Affordable Maryland PAC still has roughly a million dollars to spend on more negative TV ads against Jawando. And the campaigns of all three candidates still have hundreds of thousands of dollars in their bank accounts.
I’d like to see any corroboration of the above results from third party polls. (I know all you people read this site, so can you please send me a polling memo?) But in the meantime, all I will say is this:
We are headed to one hell of a finish.