By Adam Pagnucco.
Council Member Will Jawando, the Democratic nominee for county executive, made news on Monday when his campaign manager stated that he would not participate in any general election debates or forums with his Republican opponent, Esther Wells. The Montgomery County Republican Party blasted him for it, calling it “a debate dodge,” and Wells called out Jawando directly. Social media predictably turned into a free fire zone and one Wells supporter put up a Change.org petition calling for debates.
So what of it, folks? Should Jawando change course and once again join Wells on the debate stage? (Let’s remember that they participated in several events during the primary along with other candidates.)
First, a note on Wells. She is not Harold Maldonado, the (see for yourself) Republican running in Upcounty. Whether one agrees with her or not, she is a substantive candidate running on detailed critiques of the county’s budget, economy, schools and public safety policies. She sometimes quotes my work despite the fact that I’m a life-long Democrat who has worked for and volunteered for many candidates of my party. She is no pushover in any public discussion.
Neither is Jawando. He has been one of the county’s most experienced campaigners over the past decade. He is a talented public speaker and has probably participated in well over a hundred debates over the years. His opponents in these forums have included Jamie Raskin, David Trone, Kathleen Matthews, Evan Glass, Andrew Friedson, Hans Riemer, Gabe Albornoz and many others. Given the caliber of such competition, why should he fear Wells?
I thought outgoing County Executive Marc Elrich got this right four years ago when he appeared at a forum with his Republican opponent, Reardon “Sully” Sullivan. Sully got his chance to attack Elrich’s record to his face. Elrich still went on to win the general election with 75% of the vote.
That said, let’s understand this: candidates don’t participate in forums because they like debating their opponents. They do so if they think they will pay a price for avoiding them. And if there is no price to be paid, they may not show up.
So the real test is whether the GOP can make Jawando pay a price for avoiding Wells. And the answer to that is likely to be a big fat NO.
Let’s go back in time to 1998. Back then, the county council had nine members and two – District 1’s Betty Ann Krahnke and District 2’s Nancy Dacek – were Republicans. Dacek was defeated by Democrat Mike Knapp in 2002. Krahnke’s Republican successor, Howie Denis, was defeated by Democrat Roger Berliner in 2006. Since then, the GOP has gone 0-52 in elections for county executive and council.
It gets worse. The GOP’s percentage of the vote in these elections has been falling steadily since the days of Krahnke, Dacek and Denis. The chart below shows the percentage of votes earned by Republicans in elections for county executive and council since 1998. There have been variations by office, but generally speaking, the trend has been in one direction: DOWN.
The GOP’s least-worst performances have come in Upcounty council districts, which I define as including Council District 2 and (since 2022) Council District 7. From 2006 on, their candidates have earned an average 36% of the vote in these races, which is not completely terrible. So what did they do this year? They are running a write-in candidate against District 2 incumbent Marilyn Balcombe and they are running Maldonado (who believes the Mossad controls MoCo elected officials) against District 7 incumbent Dawn Luedtke. You can’t make it up, folks.
As for Wells, she is running as a Republican in the era of Donald Trump (maybe the most hated politician in MoCo history) in a county that is almost 60% Democratic and has a free-falling Republican Party share of voters. Additionally, she is attempting to reach a general electorate that is likely to top 300,000 voters and has so far raised less than $20,000 to do it. Jawando just defeated two Democratic primary opponents with seven-figure budgets, so why should he believe she could beat him?
Facts like these are the reason why MoCo Dem candidates have no respect for MoCo Republican rivals, at least in the context of partisan elections. And if voters don’t like that, they will have to make Democrats pay a price for it. Otherwise, most Democratic candidates will continue to ignore Republican general election opponents for the foreseeable future.