By Adam Pagnucco.
Like all of you, I will be eagerly watching the election results for Congress tonight, at least those that are available. (Some will take much longer to be determined.) But since Montgomery Perspective focuses on state and county politics, I will also be watching these results.
State Question 3
Since the statewide candidate elections don’t appear to be in question, State Question 3 is the most impactful item on Maryland ballots. The question is a constitutional amendment that would free the General Assembly from having to take account of compactness, natural boundaries and political subdivision boundaries when drawing congressional districts. The legislature could then resume its gerrymandering practices of yesteryear, possibly moving against GOP Congressman Andy Harris as soon as 2028 if the question is passed.
Passage of the question is complicated by its gobbledygooky ballot language as reprinted below.
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FOR the purpose of clarifying that certain requirements apply only to districts for the election of members of the Senate of Maryland and the House of Delegates; authorizing the General Assembly to grant original jurisdiction to the Supreme Court of Maryland to review the congressional districting plan of the State; and providing that nothing in the Maryland Constitution provides applicable criteria for the boundaries of a congressional districting plan.
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The Democrats are working far harder to pass this measure than the Republicans are to defeat it. Gerrymandering is widely unpopular among voters of all stripes, but since the ballot language is so inscrutable and the state’s dominant political party is insisting so loudly that it must be passed, I wonder if Team Blue will ultimately triumph. Let’s remember that Maryland voters approved the state’s nationally infamous 2011 congressional districts (including the “pterodactyl”) through a 2012 referendum.
County Executive and Council District 1
I don’t expect Republican county executive candidate Esther Wells or Republican Council District 1 candidate Reardon “Sully” Sullivan to win, but I am curious to see what percentages of the vote they get. Democratic county executive candidate Will Jawando has hardly campaigned since his heart attack and is ignoring Wells. Democratic Council District 1 candidate Julie Yang has not ignored Sully, exchanging mailers with him as election day approached.
In county executive races, the GOP nominee recorded 34% of the vote in 2010, 34% in 2014 and 24% in 2022. (Robin Ficker got 16% of the vote in 2018, but Council Member Nancy Floreen ran as an independent in the general election that year.)
In Council District 1 races, the GOP nominee recorded 32% of the vote in 2010, 31% of the vote in 2014 and 22% of the vote in 2018. The GOP did not field a candidate for this seat in 2022.
Accordingly, if Wells or Sully can reach the mid-to-high 30s, they are overperforming their party’s expected outcome. If not, it probably means that national politics swamped their local messages.
Board of Education At-Large
The Montgomery County Education Association (MCEA) and its parent organization, the Maryland State Education Association (MSEA), really do not want at-large Board of Education candidate Brenda Diaz to win. A Super PAC partially financed by MSEA has set up a website opposing her and has run social media ads against her. MCEA’s Apple Ballot advocates for Diaz’s opponent, Omar Lazo.
An MCEA Facebook post targeting Diaz.
Now here is the problem. In the last seven general elections that a woman has run against a man for a MoCo school board seat, the woman has won every time. The teachers will have to overcome history to keep Diaz off the board.
During the primary, I noticed differential impacts of the Apple Ballot by voting mode. Two days after this year’s June primary, I wrote, “While the Apple Ballot is the most influential endorsement in MoCo, non-incumbents with the Apple Ballot have so far underperformed in mail voting when compared with in-person (early plus election day) voting.” That statement predicted the result in the Council At-Large and Council District 3 primaries.
This makes sense. MCEA’s members have historically been the county’s most effective political volunteers, but they don’t hand out Apples to mail voters.
And so if Diaz is either leading overall tonight or is trailing slightly but leads in mail votes, she could be headed to the board. If not, the teachers will win.