By Adam Pagnucco.
Part One described the methodology of this series, which is hampered by the quality problems in data published by the State Board of Elections (SBE). Part Two covered receipts received by council candidates. Part Three looked at in-county contributions. Part Four examined cash balance. Part Five looked at the council at-large candidates more closely. Now let’s look at the open seat races in Council Districts 1 and 3.
In introducing each of these races, we start with a chart showing unique in-county contributors inside the districts. (The chart in Part Five showed all unique in-county contributors.) This stat means a lot because it’s an early approximation of each candidate’s activist base and specifically the folks who will actually vote in their elections. Whether folks are in traditional financing or public financing, this kind of support is important to building momentum for a win.
Let’s examine a few key stats and form impressions of some of the council at-large members. For definitions of regions and towns see here. Percentages reported apply to volume of in-county contributions.
Council District 1 Candidates
Julie Yang
Receipts: $261,800 (First)
Cash balance: $237,774 (First)
Unique in-county contributors: 558 (First – by a TON)
Certified for matching funds: Yes and has already received the maximum allowable amount
In-County Contributions by Region
Democratic Crescent: 25%
Rest of County: 51
Upcounty: 24
Top Five Towns
Potomac: 27%
Bethesda: 20
Rockville: 20
North Potomac: 7
Clarksburg: 7
What I like:
VOLUME. Yang is crushing it in fundraising. The State Board of Elections has erased finance data from the 2018 cycle, but I don’t remember a district candidate doing better than Yang in the era of public financing.
What I don’t like:
Yang is getting lots of money from outside the district. That’s a financial plus but won’t get her extra votes beyond that. Also, the Wootton High School activists will be closely watching her school board vote on that issue. She has to be with them or against them; abstaining won’t cut it.
The bottom line:
Tons of money plus the Apple Ballot is a great combination.
Drew Morrison
Receipts: $127,950 (Second)
Cash balance: $102,856 (Second)
Unique in-county contributors: 118 (Third)
Certified for matching funds: No, because he is using traditional financing
In-County Contributions by Region
Democratic Crescent: 79%
Rest of County: 16
Upcounty: 5
Top Five Towns
Bethesda: 55%
Chevy Chase: 12
Potomac: 11
Silver Spring Downtown: 7
Cabin John: 5
What I like:
He’s a hometown guy who worked for the district’s former three-term council member (Roger Berliner) and is getting money from inside the district.
What I don’t like:
I’d like to see some endorsements other than Berliner.
The bottom line:
He’s in the mix because of brains, roots, work and $40,000 in self-funding.
Debbie Spielberg
Receipts: $53,055 (Third – with an asterisk)
Cash balance: $26,524 (Third – with an asterisk)
Unique in-county contributors: 238 (Second)
Certified for matching funds: Yes, after the January report
In-County Contributions by Region
Democratic Crescent: 77%
Rest of County: 19
Upcounty: 4
Top Five Towns
Chevy Chase: 43%
Silver Spring Downtown: 16
Bethesda: 14
Potomac: 7
Rockville: 5
What I like:
She is developing a nice activist base in Chevy Chase and is supported by some heavy hitters in the district (like former Attorney General Brian Frosh).
What I don’t like:
Spielberg still owns the house in Silver Spring she bought more than twenty years ago and claimed a county tax credit on it tied to principal residency as recently as FY25. That said, she is not the first district shopper in MoCo politics and won’t be the last.
The bottom line:
When including her pending matching funds (that’s the asterisk above), she is tied financially with Morrison, has established herself with the district’s insider network and is in a great position to draw on the political base of her boss (County Executive Marc Elrich). She could win a three-way race like this one.
The Bottom Line on This Race So Far
Yang looks like a leader but the race is far from over. Morrison and Spielberg have their strengths too.
Council District 3 Candidates
Izola Shaw
Receipts: $40,541 (First)
Cash balance: $28,105 (First)
Unique in-county contributors: 253 (First)
Certified for matching funds: Applied after the January report
In-County Contributions by Region
Democratic Crescent: 44%
Rest of County: 42
Upcounty: 14
Top Five Towns
Rockville: 22%
Silver Spring Downtown: 19
Wheaton: 10
Kensington: 9
Takoma Park: 8
What I like:
She is doing well in Rockville, has the Apple Ballot and clearly occupies the race’s progressive lane.
What I don’t like:
She is getting a lot of money from outside the district and she has a scandal that her enemies can exploit if they choose.
The bottom line:
Rockville plus progressive support is a strong combination.
Jud Ashman
Receipts: $39,849 (Second)
Cash balance: $26,627 (Second)
Unique in-county contributors: 225 (Second)
Certified for matching funds: Yes, after the January report
In-County Contributions by Region
Democratic Crescent: 25%
Rest of County: 33
Upcounty: 43
Top Five Towns
Gaithersburg: 32%
Bethesda: 21
Rockville: 14
Potomac: 13
Silver Spring Downtown: 2
What I like:
Ashman nearly equaled Shaw in fundraising with much less time and has more unique contributors in the district. Plus, he crushed an able challenger in last year’s Gaithersburg mayor race, proving his ability to get votes in nearly half the district.
What I don’t like:
Jud, did you really have to write this 2018 column telling Democrats why they should vote for GOP Governor Larry Hogan? Sure, Ashman has a bunch of Democratic endorsements to make up for it (including Hogan’s U.S. Senate opponent, Angela Alsobrooks), but Shaw’s progressive supporters would be stupid to not make an issue of this.
The bottom line:
A big base in Gaithersburg, recently battle tested in his mayor’s race, financially capable and champing at the bit to win. This is a strong combination equal to Shaw’s.
Ricky Fai Mui
Receipts: $4,367 (Third)
Cash balance: $0 (Fourth)
Unique in-county contributors: 9 (Fourth)
Certified for matching funds: No, because he is using traditional financing
In-County Contributions by Region
Democratic Crescent: 24%
Rest of County: 66
Upcounty: 10
The bottom line: A Republican has never won in this council district.
Allison Eriksen
Receipts: $1,745 (Fourth)
Cash balance: $1,456 (Third)
Unique in-county contributors: 10 (Third)
Certified for matching funds: No, because she is using traditional financing
In-County Contributions by Region
Democratic Crescent: 26%
Rest of County: 38
Upcounty: 36
The bottom line: Eriksen has not yet shown that she is competitive.
The Bottom Line on This Race So Far
Shaw vs Ashman. It’s Rockville vs Gaithersburg, new blood vs old(er) blood, progressive vs pro-job, strong candidate vs strong candidate. As an analyst, I love everything about this race.
And here’s one more thing: the losing candidate keeps their municipal office and could come back for more in the future. Hey Rockville Mayor Monique Ashton – how would you like it if Shaw raises a bunch of money, loses by two points or so and then runs for mayor against you? I smell another great race, folks! It’s MoCo politics at its best.