By Adam Pagnucco.
Polling nerds rejoice, because it’s poll season here on Montgomery Perspective!
We have previously published recent polls by Council Member Andrew Friedson and Council Member Will Jawando showing a three-way statistical tie (along with Council Member Evan Glass) in the county executive race. Now comes the Affordable Maryland PAC, a Super PAC financed by the real estate industry, claiming that its anti-Jawando TV ads are driving up Jawando’s negatives as election day approaches.
Here are a few nuggets from the polling memo just sent to us by the Affordable Maryland PAC.
The PAC’s most recent poll, which surveyed 1,042 likely primary voters on May 29 through June 1, found Friedson at 24%, Jawando at 20% and Glass at 17%. Since the poll’s margin of error is plus/minus 4.0 points, all three are statistically tied. One note: this poll’s sample size is much larger than the Friedson and Jawando polls, which surveyed 400 voters each, and therefore it has a smaller margin of error.
The PAC also polled voters in January and April. Since January, Friedson’s result has climbed from 9% to 24% (up 15), Jawando’s result has climbed from 14% to 20% (up 6) and Glass’s result has climbed from 13% to 17% (up 4). I have previously reported that Friedson’s campaign began spending large amounts on voter communications after March, likely accounting for his gain.
The PAC claims that Jawando’s net favorability rating has declined from +21 in January to +7 as of last week, which it attributes to its negative TV ad. Over the same period, Friedson’s net favorability has increased by 12 points and Glass’s has risen by 3 points. The PAC comments, “It is quite clear that our ads are working.”
According to the PAC’s 48-hour filings with the State Board of Elections, it spent $231,950 on TV on May 11, another $331,050 on TV on May 15 and another $ $331,050 on May 26. That totals $894,050. Given its prior reported cash balance, the PAC has roughly another $400,000 to spend assuming that it does not raise more money.
The Affordable Maryland PAC’s polling memo is reprinted below.
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Montgomery County Executive — Final Stretch
What our latest polling tells us, and where it points
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Affordable Maryland PAC
DATE: June 2, 2026
RE: The Final Stretch
Bottom line. The race has broken our way because our ads are working. In our poll. Andrew Friedson now leads the County Executive field at 24%, with Will Jawando close behind at 20% and Evan Glass third at 17%. More important than the order is the trajectory: the contest has consolidated around Friedson since January, while Jawando’s standing has eroded under sustained negative pressure specifically linked to our advertising campaign. But 36% of voters remain undecided, and many still are not familiar with the candidates.
Tavern Research conducted a survey for Affordable Maryland PAC of 1,042 likely primary voters, fielded over text to web from May 29, 2026, to June 01, 2026, and weighted by Gender, Race, Education, Age, 2022 Primary Voting History, and the respondent’s likelihood of matching to the voter registration database. The margin of error is +/- 4.0%.
The state of the race
Our January polling found a jumbled field, with a massive 60% of voters undecided, and our April messaging poll found a race essentially frozen (Glass 15%, Jawando 12%, Friedson 8%). The movement is recent, and it is attributable to our efforts and the Friedson campaign’s early spending: between April and May, undecideds collapsed from 61% to 36%, and Friedson vaulted from single digits to 24%, opening a four-point edge over Jawando. That margin sits at the edge of the ±4-point margin of error, so we can treat Friedson vs. Jawando as a genuine two-way contest. The margin between Friedson and Jawando is real but tight.
Early communication has damaged Jawando — and it is measurable.
Jawando’s image has deteriorated sharply since our ads started running. His net favorability has fallen from +21 in January to +7 today, a 14-point swing. The decline is concentrated entirely on the negative side: his unfavorables doubled from 15% to 31%, even as his name recognition rose from 49% to 30%. The voters getting to know Jawando are not forming a positive view. — only 55% of those who hold an opinion of him hold a favorable one. For the candidate who began the cycle as the best-known, best-liked name in the field, that is a real reversal, and it tracks our paid-communications window. It is quite clear that our ads are working.
