By Adam Pagnucco.
Part One described our methodology and polled our sources on a few state legislative races. Today, let’s ask them about two races with incumbents: Congressional District 6, where Congresswoman April McClain Delaney is being challenged by her predecessor, former Congressman David Trone, and the sheriff’s race, where incumbent Max Uy is being challenged by Will Milam. All comments are from sources and are not mine.
Congress District 6
Here are a few things my sources said.
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I think this one is gonna be tight Trone is spending so much and has written name recognition, but I think also people are tired of his attitude towards others in his ads.
Delaney by 5 points thanks to party support.
Delaney. But a very close race.
Delaney. This is a squeaker but she’s matched him on the airwaves and digital and being a woman is potentially an advantage. Also, this seems like one of those where some strange, downstream thing we can’t quantify could play a role. Who knows what that is? But what if it’s something like Frederick Dems who are unhappy with Fitzwater over data center policy seeing Fitzwater is with Trone, and then choosing Delaney simply because of that. That’s the type of thing that could happen here.
Money is a blessing and a curse. Volume of mail and TV is no substitute for a cohesive message, which Trone should’ve learned by now.
High turnout + money = Trone.
Delaney wins. I think people are just tired of Trone, his name gets beat into our brains every two years. I almost think people are oversaturated by him.
April Delaney to win. Money matters, but in my decades of involvement in politics candidates often matter even more. That’s not always true in primaries obviously especially in the Republican side, but I think it is true in many cases. I think people are buying the narrative that Trone left his seat before and lost in the Senate race pretty badly and he’s burned bridges with most of the leadership. I think a lot of those people are helping April. And I think people are buying the narrative that David is a sore loser and not a team player in the Democratic Party. I think more and more he’s coming across as arrogant and self-centered and I don’t think that plays well with people.
Delaney because she may come across as the nicer person and she is the real incumbent.
McClain Delaney. It’s unbelievable how all of the Maryland Democratic officials (both Federal and State) got behind April – I would have expected many of our elected leaders to stay neutral given Trone’s deep track record and many contributions to the Democratic party.
Trone comes up just short. McClain Delaney has been undistinguished as a candidate and as a member of Congress, but I don’t think Trone has made the case that she has committed a firing offense. Incidentally, this has got to be the dumbest primary in the country. McClain Delaney does not seem to want the job, and it’s not clear why David Trone is so hot to retake it, but why should any of us care?
McClain Delaney will win. She saw it coming and was prepared. The gender dynamics benefit her.
Delaney (dominant level of support from the delegation, female, been good).
Delaney. Delaney has the awful vote involving ICE but has otherwise been what CD6 has traditionally been. Trone has contributions to politicians unfriendly to Democratic causes and started his campaign by stating “re-election” which was/is disingenuous.
As an actual CD6 resident, Trone wins. He is everywhere, per usual. He simply knows how to run an organization, be it a campaign, a congressional office, or a billion dollar company. His constituent services were the best in the state, and people remember who helped them. Delaney has not had enough time to grow into the position, but considering the stakes, I’m not sure voters have the patience to wait for her to catch up. It’s shame and turn off that there has been such negativity though. I think that turns off voters across the board.
Delaney – I don’t have a dog in the fight but it will be hard to dislodge an incumbent especially with someone who gave up the seat.
McClain Delaney. Almost all of the Democrat Leaders that I personally know in Western Maryland have told me that they are supporting McClain Delaney because they don’t like the idea of ‘primarying’ a good Democrat in a purple district. If Trone cannot get Garrett County on board with his campaign, he’s going to have a tougher challenge in Montgomery County/Frederick County.
I think Trone will win, although I think Delaney deserves to keep her seat. She’s working incredibly hard across a very politically-diverse district. Trone did a good job when he held the seat, too. Unfortunately, I think this one is going to come down to who can spend the most money on negative ads.
Who cares? It is a shame that two very wealthy people are trying to buy an election, particularly when those resources could be put to far better use in other races. But at the end of the day, they both will be reliable votes for (hopefully Speaker) Hakeem Jeffries.
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Final source tally
McClain Delaney: 45 votes
Trone: 10 votes
Who cares: 1 vote
Sheriff
Let’s start with comments from sources.
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Milam – more money and getting name out there more in a race most don’t know about.
Milam ousts Uy thanks to the unions.
Uy. Milam is working hard, but it’s tough to beat an incumbent.
Miliam. There’s just too much going against Uy here, both in terms of outside resources and some potentially legitimate concerns about his record. It’s hard to know what’s real and what’s not, but enough of it has probably broken through for Miliam to win.
Why’s everybody always pickin’ on Uy? (reference to 50s Coasters song “Charlie Brown”).
I think Will upsets Uy. Partly wishful thinking because Will is a close friend, but all the negatives against Max have hurt him, the sheriffs and other MCGEO have campaigned hard for him, no one really knows who the sheriff is so there’s minimal name recognition, and when all else fails, M comes before U.
Milam by a mile, due to his aggressive campaigning and a pile of endorsements.
Incumbent Uy or the establishment challenger Milan? I predict the incumbent wins: Uy.
Milam, because it seems like Max Uy against the world. I sort of get that MCGEO has a beef with Max, but I have no idea why Ike Leggett and others are supporting Milam.
Uy will win. He’s had his management issues, but with the local press diminished, not enough voters heard about those issues to fundamentally change the race.
Milam – Uy took and continues to take a beating from MCGEO and others. This is more about Uy than Milam. If Uy was a little more politically savvy he may have a chance but Uy has not effectively rebutted the claims – whether true or not – against him.
Toss up but I think Max will be re-elected. If Will wins, he will serve well. If Max wins he MUST make some changes in his leadership or the department will really suffer.
Milam. Maybe I’m skewed from reading your blog, but the level of vitriol directed at Uy from MCGEO makes me believe his goose is cooked.
Milam. Max is a lovely person, but I haven’t heard anything positive about the way he’s done the job.
My heart tells me Uy and he has put up a fight when attacked unfairly by the union. I like Max and think he is the right person for the job. Milam seems like a good guy but I give the nod for the position to the incumbent who has tried to implement standards and does great community engagement.
Milam is everywhere and rank and file have been very vocal about concerns about Uy’s management.
Uy is very nice, but there seems to be lots of unproductive trouble in office. So Milam will win. Milam has a really great pitch and has been everywhere to make his case. He seems like a great person.
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Final source tally
Milam: 32 votes
Uy: 11 votes
Tossup: 1 vote
Next: County council races.